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Return to Stadiums in September


Anniesland Jag
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2 hours ago, laukat said:

I'll not say what my job is but I know our test and trace system very well and I know whats happening in England.

 On the plus side the results feeds which starts the test and trace process is much more integrated in Scotland. All lab results from NHS Scotland labs feed back to a central view so it is at least possible in Scotland to get a reliable view of virus spread in as realtime as you can reasonably expect. In general testing capcity in Scotland has been sufficient at the moment and there are no restrictions on who can get a test. Care home testing is routine in Scotland as well so generally Scotland has got the testing part working well.

The Scottish one has suffered with delay on development of the call handling system for tracers need to contact people. Delivery of those systems on the date expected was overly ambitous. Thats led to a lot of those test trace staff having to fall back on local board systems to get moving creating problems in training staff as no-one knew what to train them on.  So contact tracing still has some room for improvement but is rapidly improving and the difference in the last 2 weeks alone is night and day. On top of that Scotland has the mobile app and that brings a degree of self trace facilities.

NHS England has lots of problems. They don't have the testing capacity so are now prioritising tests. They don't have a really accurate central picture of infections so realtime response and action is impacted. Their tracing capability is unknown as until they test the volume required they won't know if they can trace the true volume of positive tests. Its not clear that they are routinely testing in care homes. The uptake on their mobile app has been badly hampered by the belief its retaining data for non-covid purposes.

So my early comments about Whitty and Valance's frustration about NHS England's test and trace capability was not to say Scotland's is perfect as its not but more that NHS England's one is almost non-existant. Scotland's system is similar to Wales and in turn you are seen more targeted measures in response.

The Test and Trace isn’t working, in Hospitality there is no support financially to expect people to self isolate and that’s why people are ignoring the advice , it’s not a difficult decision for some people , you either put food on the table for your family and pay the bills , mortgage etc or you go for the Statutory Sick Pay Option which is paltry in comparison. 
 

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On 9/21/2020 at 6:13 PM, Norgethistle said:

There is no scientific data that drives a decision to bring in more restrictions 

Re the Hospitality restrictions, at this moment there is a 5% transmission rate as of today.

IMO the transmission rate doesn’t justify these restrictions or the economic impact within the Hospitality sector that these will cause .

 

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7 hours ago, Dick Dastardly said:

I'm far from convinced that there will be a season

Got to agree with you at our level there shouldn’t be a season, very little Income coming in to Clubs and in fact the SPFL are complicit with letting football clubs become insolvent with their must play on a reduced season.

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22 minutes ago, jlsarmy said:

Re the Hospitality restrictions, at this moment there is a 5% transmission rate as of today.

IMO the transmission rate doesn’t justify these restrictions or the economic impact within the Hospitality sector that these will cause .

 

The 5% is also thought to be significantly overstated as according to reputable scientists 1 or 2% are false positives and a lot of the rest are fragments of virus left from months ago so it is probably only 1 or 2% being tested that are actually positive and contagious so even less justification.

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7 minutes ago, dpj said:

The 5% is also thought to be significantly overstated as according to reputable scientists 1 or 2% are false positives and a lot of the rest are fragments of virus left from months ago so it is probably only 1 or 2% being tested that are actually positive and contagious so even less justification.

Transmission rate also includes those that have no symptoms around 80% of all who catch it

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1 minute ago, dpj said:

The 5% is also thought to be significantly overstated as according to reputable scientists 1 or 2% are false positives and a lot of the rest are fragments of virus left from months ago so it is probably only 1 or 2% being tested that are actually positive and contagious so even less justification.

The whole thing is beyond belief , not remotely a level playing field in Hospitality some businesses losing 5 hours Income and Profits where others are losing 1 or 2 hours . Scottish Government offered no safety blanket in helping these businesses survive.

Incredibly naive if the SG think everyone is going to go  home at 10 o’clock , you’re driving the problem underground instead of staying in a controlled environment.

As we speak today there was 1 death in Scotland.

 

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19 minutes ago, jlsarmy said:

The Test and Trace isn’t working, in Hospitality there is no support financially to expect people to self isolate and that’s why people are ignoring the advice , it’s not a difficult decision for some people , you either put food on the table for your family and pay the bills , mortgage etc or you go for the Statutory Sick Pay Option which is paltry in comparison. 

Test and trace is different from if you choose to follow the advice to isolate after you have been traced. You are absolutely correct to say that for some people thats a choice between earning enough to put food on the table or not and the gaps in the current furlough scheme need to be addressed to support people who need to Isolate.

Interesting to see Wales announced tonight a lump sum payment of £500 for low paid persons who are asked to isolate. It would be good if the Scottish Government did the same but its not enough as some people may have to isolate for several weeks particularly if other members of your household get it.  The only sustainable way to support hospitality, toursim etc is extending furlough.

The furlough scheme is due to run out at end of October and only the UK Government have the financial levers to extend it. In my opinion Boris has one job today, that was to annouce an extension to furlough whilst we have to continue to operate a mass test, trace and isolate approach.  However there are rumours that the UK Government is not keen to do this for two reasons. First of all they can't afford it, second they are now of the opinon that some industries will not return post furlough due to the combined effect of covid-19 and Brexit (i.e. car industry, lots of airlines, some airports, big chunk of pubs, restaurants etc) so they don't want to pay wages for jobs they believe to be lost causes.

A major part of Boris's speech tonight was you need to obey the rules or else this gets worse. Ignoring the hypocrisy of who probably wrote that speech I think he is also preparing the ground to push a line that is along the lines of 'we can't extend furlough and the reason you're now out of a job is because you didn't follow our covid instructions'

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2 minutes ago, laukat said:

Test and trace is different from if you choose to follow the advice to isolate after you have been traced. You are absolutely correct to say that for some people thats a choice between earning enough to put food on the table or not and the gaps in the current furlough scheme need to be addressed to support people who need to Isolate.

Interesting to see Wales announced tonight a lump sum payment of £500 for low paid persons who are asked to isolate. It would be good if the Scottish Government did the same but its not enough as some people may have to isolate for several weeks particularly if other members of your household get it.  The only sustainable way to support hospitality, toursim etc is extending furlough.

The furlough scheme is due to run out at end of October and only the UK Government have the financial levers to extend it. In my opinion Boris has one job today, that was to annouce an extension to furlough whilst we have to continue to operate a mass test, trace and isolate approach.  However there are rumours that the UK Government is not keen to do this for two reasons. First of all they can't afford it, second they are now of the opinon that some industries will not return post furlough due to the combined effect of covid-19 and Brexit (i.e. car industry, lots of airlines, some airports, big chunk of pubs, restaurants etc) so they don't want to pay wages for jobs they believe to be lost causes.

A major part of Boris's speech tonight was you need to obey the rules or else this gets worse. Ignoring the hypocrisy of who probably wrote that speech I think he is also preparing the ground to push a line that is along the lines of 'we can't extend furlough and the reason you're now out of a job is because you didn't follow our covid instructions'

The problem was we did follow the rules for example Eat out to help out to get the economy going , let’s go back to the offices to get the City Centre going .

3 weeks later a total reverse

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17 minutes ago, jlsarmy said:

The problem was we did follow the rules for example Eat out to help out to get the economy going , let’s go back to the offices to get the City Centre going .

3 weeks later a total reverse

Spot on. The UK government messaging on things like eat to help out and get back to the office has created an impression that the worst was over, that life and the economy should get back to normal as quickly as possible. Its completely at odds with the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish Governments messages of work from home were possible and overall aim of supressing the virus.

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10 hours ago, jlsarmy said:

The Test and Trace isn’t working, in Hospitality there is no support financially to expect people to self isolate and that’s why people are ignoring the advice , it’s not a difficult decision for some people , you either put food on the table for your family and pay the bills , mortgage etc or you go for the Statutory Sick Pay Option which is paltry in comparison. 
 

Will the £500 mentioned not help financially for hospitality workers ?

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11 hours ago, Norgethistle said:

The restrictions make no common sense, a country wide policy makes no sense with local hotspots. The data isn’t shared or reasoning behind it. The data they share (Graph on Monday with 50000 cases) defies mathematical and statistical logic.

Do we know what works ? 

As far as the 50,000 is concerned, they said it was a simple extrapolation based on a 7 day doubling of cases. 4,000 a day cases this week, 8,000 next week, 16,000 the week after etc . It only takes a month to get to 50,000 cases a day - which is what they said - or am I missing something?

This virus has killed almost 1M people worldwide. 

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4 minutes ago, Lenziejag said:

Do we know what works ? 

As far as the 50,000 is concerned, they said it was a simple extrapolation based on a 7 day doubling of cases. 4,000 a day cases this week, 8,000 next week, 16,000 the week after etc . It only takes a month to get to 50,000 cases a day - which is what they said - or am I missing something?

This virus has killed almost 1M people worldwide. 

There was 1 week when number doubled starting from a very small number. Since then it has taken 2 or 3 weeks for number of 'positive tests' to double so taking figure and doubling it for every week is incorrect and easily discredited. Number has also started levelling off in the only countries they were willing to compare UK to that are supposed to be weeks ahead of us. Also using the word 'cases' is incorrect as lots of doctors are pointing out that is normally only used for someone who is actually ill and needs treatment, majority of these people are not ill and probably not even contagious.

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22 minutes ago, Lenziejag said:

Will the £500 mentioned not help financially for hospitality workers ?

I think it is for anyone who will not get paid if they have to stay home to self isolate so would therefore include hospitality workers in that situation. I don't think they can claim it if furlough ends and they get their pay reduced as hours cut.

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25 minutes ago, dpj said:

There was 1 week when number doubled starting from a very small number. Since then it has taken 2 or 3 weeks for number of 'positive tests' to double so taking figure and doubling it for every week is incorrect and easily discredited. Number has also started levelling off in the only countries they were willing to compare UK to that are supposed to be weeks ahead of us. Also using the word 'cases' is incorrect as lots of doctors are pointing out that is normally only used for someone who is actually ill and needs treatment, majority of these people are not ill and probably not even contagious.

But they can still pass it on, and this is the point. We need to prevent this being passed onto the vulnerable if that requires further restrictions then so be it.

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37 minutes ago, Lenziejag said:

Do we know what works ? 

As far as the 50,000 is concerned, they said it was a simple extrapolation based on a 7 day doubling of cases. 4,000 a day cases this week, 8,000 next week, 16,000 the week after etc . It only takes a month to get to 50,000 cases a day - which is what they said - or am I missing something?

This virus has killed almost 1M people worldwide. 

They specifically said it wasn't a prediction (and they were right to say that).

It was an arithmetical, not a statistical 'analysis'.  On that basis they could have said "We'll be facing 120 Million cases a day by Christmas in the UK" or "A Billion cases a week by New Year".  Both of which would be equally true, but patently absurd.

I wondered why they'd done that, until I saw the immediate headlines "Britain facing 50000 cases a day in October".  That was clearly the purpose of the slide.  But it wasn't a prediction, and it wasn't grounded in science.

 

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Let's not forget the journalists, headline writers, bloggers, politicians and their activists, and folk in the street whose aim is to sensationalize, misrepresent, mislead, selectively report, and/or cause alarm, in support of whatever their cause is.

I just finished reading a book (by a well known mortician) which included the snippet that across the world every 2 seconds somebody, somewhere, dies.

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13 hours ago, Norgethistle said:

The restrictions make no common sense, a country wide policy makes no sense with local hotspots. The data isn’t shared or reasoning behind it. The data they share (Graph on Monday with 50000 cases) defies mathematical and statistical logic.

Stockholm about to introduce restrictions ?

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11 hours ago, dpj said:

The 5% is also thought to be significantly overstated as according to reputable scientists 1 or 2% are false positives and a lot of the rest are fragments of virus left from months ago so it is probably only 1 or 2% being tested that are actually positive and contagious so even less justification.

thought and probably ? Did the reputable scientists also think that a few weeks ago when the positive test rate was under 1% ? Going by consistent data the positive test rate has increased by 500% in those few weeks. 
And taking hospitalisation, when the numbers were adjusted down a week or so ago, it was mid 40’s. It is now up near 80.

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11 hours ago, jlsarmy said:

The whole thing is beyond belief , not remotely a level playing field in Hospitality some businesses losing 5 hours Income and Profits where others are losing 1 or 2 hours . Scottish Government offered no safety blanket in helping these businesses survive.

Incredibly naive if the SG think everyone is going to go  home at 10 o’clock , you’re driving the problem underground instead of staying in a controlled environment.

As we speak today there was 1 death in Scotland.

 

We went 10 or 12 weeks with no deaths. In the last week there were 6 or 7.

Whether you think it is justified- all the numbers are increasing.

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Here is a map  from The Times on phoning up and getting a test in the U.K.......

add in the % of tests in England being returned in 24 hours has fallen as low as 14% in then add the Deloitte Servo track and trace shambles add in the app fiasco etc eg 

but of course the Scottish and U.K. govts are the same.....

FAD74589-E4EF-4365-AC9D-9A9E3E7CA29D.jpeg

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6 hours ago, dpj said:

There was 1 week when number doubled starting from a very small number. Since then it has taken 2 or 3 weeks for number of 'positive tests' to double so taking figure and doubling it for every week is incorrect and easily discredited. Number has also started levelling off in the only countries they were willing to compare UK to that are supposed to be weeks ahead of us. Also using the word 'cases' is incorrect as lots of doctors are pointing out that is normally only used for someone who is actually ill and needs treatment, majority of these people are not ill and probably not even contagious.

There’s that word probably, again. Do we know yet if asymptomatic people pass on the virus ? Not that I have heard. Did France and Spain introduce tougher restrictions when cases started increasing - Spain have. Maybe that is why cases are levelling off ? In France, Marseille has virtually no intensive care beds left. 
Where’s your data that it’s 2 to 3 weeks, but even so it only delays 50,000 cases a day by a month or two.

Edit to add. Scotland had 350 cases on Tuesday and nearly 500 on Wednesday

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3 hours ago, Lenziejag said:

thought and probably ? Did the reputable scientists also think that a few weeks ago when the positive test rate was under 1% ? Going by consistent data the positive test rate has increased by 500% in those few weeks. 
And taking hospitalisation, when the numbers were adjusted down a week or so ago, it was mid 40’s. It is now up near 80.

Think we all need to get a reality check , the restrictions will cause more harm economically and also other health and mental health issues .

It’s not going away anytime soon and the fallout from this will be beyond belief.

Sad though it is the average age of deaths from Covid is 82 years of age in Scotland and possibly some of these could have been avoided if the Governments had got the Care Homes right.

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6 hours ago, Lenziejag said:

Do we know what works ? 

As far as the 50,000 is concerned, they said it was a simple extrapolation based on a 7 day doubling of cases. 4,000 a day cases this week, 8,000 next week, 16,000 the week after etc . It only takes a month to get to 50,000 cases a day - which is what they said - or am I missing something?

This virus has killed almost 1M people worldwide. 

Numbers haven’t doubled in previous weeks either in UK or Europe so why should they now?

I can use the same model and predict Brian Graham will score 200 goals this season 

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1 hour ago, jlsarmy said:

Think we all need to get a reality check , the restrictions will cause more harm economically and also other health and mental health issues .

It’s not going away anytime soon and the fallout from this will be beyond belief.

Sad though it is the average age of deaths from Covid is 82 years of age in Scotland and possibly some of these could have been avoided if the Governments had got the Care Homes right.

The only industry that has been affected by these new restrictions is the hospitality industry. 
We can still meet people outside, exceptions have been made for people needing care. I can’t think of anything more damaging to mental health than someone you know dying. That’s the reality

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