Dick Dastardly Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 15 hours ago, allyo said: Ten games left, I reckon eight wins would do it. I'd fancy us at 66 points. Very tough ask. 2.4 points per game when currently we have averaged 1.6. That is asking a lot for a team that are struggling to score, however I doubt it will need anything like 66 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laukat Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Dick Dastardly said: 2.4 points per game when currently we have averaged 1.6. That is asking a lot for a team that are struggling to score, however I doubt it will need anything like 66 points. Agree with this. Last seasons run of results on our title run averaged at 2ppg in our last 10. The only time we have done 2.4 points per game in the last 10 was in 12/13 Any team that gets to 65 points this season will be very unlucky not to win the league. Its not unrealistic to think 63 points could win you the league. Right now Kilmarnock are favourites in my eyes as they have the both us and Arbroath at home whilst they have the most potential to improve. Problem for them is their local derby with Ayr on Friday. Win it and the feelgood factor returns, lose it and it could go badly wrong for them. Arbroath are not playing well at the moment but getting results which is not a bad place to be. However of the top 5 they play all away from home except Raith in the run in starting with ICT on Saturday. We are not really in the title race unless we win our games in hand and even then Arbroath and Killie would have to throw it away. Most likely for us is the playoffs and right now I would take a playoff against Dundee or St Johnstone. Feels like us against Dundee in the playoff final is meant to be. Edited March 7, 2022 by laukat typo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) Agree with your analysis @laukat. I think Killie will be promoted as champions, Arbroath will run out of legs, we will be in the playoffs. I’d take McGhee’s Dundee in the playoffs as I’d think we’d lose to the Saintees. But we might have to get past the Bunnet first Edited March 7, 2022 by sandy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allyo Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 65 points is now only 14 from 8 games for Arbroath (4-2-2), or 15 from 8 games for Killie (4-3-1). At this stage of the season I'd fancy one of them to manage that. But yes, if Thistle can get to 62 or 63 I'd agree that it puts us in the mix, and might just be enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lady-isobel-barnett Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 hour ago, sandy said: Agree with your analysis @laukat. I think Killie will be promoted as champions, Arbroath will run out of legs, we will be in the playoffs. I’d take McGhee’s Dundee in the playoffs as I’d think we’d lose to the Saintees. But we might have to get past the Bunnet first Think that's mainly how I reckon it'll pan out. I'm of a mind that if we can't win thru play offs regardless of the opposition then we we're only gonna struggle in the top tier anyway. I don't think promotion at all costs is so important as getting promoted later with a set up that could keep us up there 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laukat Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 32 minutes ago, allyo said: 65 points is now only 14 from 8 games for Arbroath (4-2-2), or 15 from 8 games for Killie (4-3-1). At this stage of the season I'd fancy one of them to manage that. But yes, if Thistle can get to 62 or 63 I'd agree that it puts us in the mix, and might just be enough. I would agree that I would expect one of them to get to 65 and in my opinion more likely Kilmarnock. 14 or 15 points from 8 games respectively seems plausible particularly when you think of it as 4 wins 2 draws or 4 wins 3 draws However in the corresponding round of fixtures Arbroath only got 16 points from those 8 games including away wins against us, Killie and ICT. That was their purple patch and difficult to see how they get close to that points return given recent form and results. Killie only got 13 from the same 8 fixtures. In that period they lost to all the other top 5 clubs. So you would think they would have greater scope for improvement but away games at Ayr, Morton and QoS look a lot harder than earlier in the season. What I think you get from that is its unlikely someone is going to get much more than 16 points from the last 8 games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
partickthedog Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, laukat said: Agree with this. Last seasons run of results on our title run averaged at 2ppg in our last 10. The only time we have done 2.4 points per game in the last 10 was in 12/13 Any team that gets to 65 points this season will be very unlucky not to win the league. Its not unrealistic to think 63 points could win you the league. Right now Kilmarnock are favourites in my eyes as they have the both us and Arbroath at home whilst they have the most potential to improve. Problem for them is their local derby with Ayr on Friday. Win it and the feelgood factor returns, lose it and it could go badly wrong for them. Arbroath are not playing well at the moment but getting results which is not a bad place to be. However of the top 5 they play all away from home except Raith in the run in starting with ICT on Saturday. We are not really in the title race unless we win our games in hand and even then Arbroath and Killie would have to throw it away. Most likely for us is the playoffs and right now I would take a playoff against Dundee or St Johnstone. Feels like us against Dundee in the playoff final is meant to be. Lots of good analysis here. However, you are perhaps putting a little too much emphasis on home advantage for certain games. Just looked at a league table splitting the results into home and away, and virtually every team's home and away records are remarkably similar. There is also a very high number of draws (last weekend was a huge exception). I have not attempted a calculation but I think the percentage gap between home and away points totals is closer than the result of the referendum on Scottish independence (I make no political point!). Edited March 7, 2022 by partickthedog Spelling! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CotterJag Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 I enjoy this type of analysis and thinking. For once though, I can only see one game at a time making any kind of sense in this league. Whoever wins the league, except for Arbroath maybe, can not really claim to have deserved it. Very little consistency, poor play, dodgy penalties (for some), much luck, Covid and terrible pitches including the plastic ones, has meant that this has been the strangest of seasons. If we win tomorrow and then at the weekend (I'm immediately back to looking more than one game ahead), I'd really start to fancy us. That, despite our relatively weak squad, poor pitch and multiple games in hand. In any other year, the top 3 in this league would be lucky to be 3rd , 4th and 5th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirdrieJag Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 hours ago, lady-isobel-barnett said: Think that's mainly how I reckon it'll pan out. I'm of a mind that if we can't win thru play offs regardless of the opposition then we we're only gonna struggle in the top tier anyway. I don't think promotion at all costs is so important as getting promoted later with a set up that could keep us up there Totally agree LIB. Although it's good to be in the mix, I think winning is beyond us. Surely our primary objective was to consolidate our position in the Championship, while recovering from the financial hits we've taken over the last 2 years, and to launch a real title bid next year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lenziejag Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 15 hours ago, laukat said: Agree with this. Last seasons run of results on our title run averaged at 2ppg in our last 10. The only time we have done 2.4 points per game in the last 10 was in 12/13 Any team that gets to 65 points this season will be very unlucky not to win the league. Its not unrealistic to think 63 points could win you the league. Right now Kilmarnock are favourites in my eyes as they have the both us and Arbroath at home whilst they have the most potential to improve. Problem for them is their local derby with Ayr on Friday. Win it and the feelgood factor returns, lose it and it could go badly wrong for them. Arbroath are not playing well at the moment but getting results which is not a bad place to be. However of the top 5 they play all away from home except Raith in the run in starting with ICT on Saturday. We are not really in the title race unless we win our games in hand and even then Arbroath and Killie would have to throw it away. Most likely for us is the playoffs and right now I would take a playoff against Dundee or St Johnstone. Feels like us against Dundee in the playoff final is meant to be. I am not so sure I agree with that. We need to win our games in hand, certainly. If we do that, then we just need to match Arbroath and Killie and win the games against them(maybe not even both).This assumes ICT and Raith are out of it and all 3 of Arbroath Killie and ourselves don’t collapse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a f kincaid Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) Just some observations. Including tonight we have 10 fixtures remaining... 8, 12 , 19, 22, 26 (March) and 2, 8 , 16, 23, 29 (April). That's 10 games in 53 days. If we finish 3rd or 4th then to get promoted we'd have to face a further 6 games after the end of the scheduled fixtures. If I read the SPFL's "key dates" correctly that would mean 3 (or 4), 7, 10 (or 11), 14, 19, 22 (May). That's 6 games in 20 days. It would be absolutely essential to avoid injuries and/or suspensions given our relatively small squad. In addition, it's not impossible for QP to finish in a play-off place as well. They have 5 home games left to play plus a possible 3 play-offs would mean 8. Add to our 5 remaining fixtures + 3 play-offs gives a possible maximum of 16 more games to be played on the pitch. What kind of a state would it be in by then? The last Div 1 fixture is on 30th April. If either or both PT/QP are involved in the play-offs then up to three weeks of May would be "lost" between the 30th of April and the 22nd of May in which to address the major problems of the playing surface. The Premier Sports Cup 1st and 2nd round of matches are scheduled for 9/10th then 12/13th July. That would leave around 5-6 weeks to work on the pitch. Any groundsmen on here? Would that be enough? Irrespective of any play-offs by either club, would waiving home advantage for the sectional fixtures for this cup be prudent? Lesser Hampden anyone? Edited March 8, 2022 by a f kincaid typo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allyo Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 I definitely think that 2nd would be a huge advantage over 3rd or 4th. I don't think anyone has ever been promoted to the Premier from 3rd or 4th. I would expect teams at the top to perform better against other teams than earlier in the season, if "meaningless" games come into play. Though in such a tight league that's maybe unlikely to happen before the last couple of weeks. I don't really go along with the "building for a stronger challenge" argument. So much in this league depends on form, confidence, luck, and you have to take your chance when it comes. Next season we could win the title or get relegated. Every other team is trying to build. I think that's just the way it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laukat Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 24 minutes ago, allyo said: I definitely think that 2nd would be a huge advantage over 3rd or 4th. I don't think anyone has ever been promoted to the Premier from 3rd or 4th. I would expect teams at the top to perform better against other teams than earlier in the season, if "meaningless" games come into play. Though in such a tight league that's maybe unlikely to happen before the last couple of weeks. I don't really go along with the "building for a stronger challenge" argument. So much in this league depends on form, confidence, luck, and you have to take your chance when it comes. Next season we could win the title or get relegated. Every other team is trying to build. I think that's just the way it is. Yes, only 3 teams have been promoted via the playoffs since the championship came into existence and they all finished 2nd. I think this is why Dick Campbell was so happy after getting the draw with us at Gayfield. I reckon he's figured out that Kilmarnock are more likely to win the league and his actual priority is beating us to 2nd place. Also agree about the "building for a stronger challenge" argument. Next season will have St Johnstone or Dundee or both in the league. Even if Kilmarnock go up that's not an easier league to win next season. Any team that gets promoted to the premier will have to significantly improve their squad to survive so wanting to hold off for a squad that can better sustain itself in the top division is setting a very high bar. Our team from 12/13 was a massively more talented squad but it only just survived the following season in the premiership mainly due to Hibs and Hearts collapsing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weebaw1 Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 If we are promoted we’ll have a far higher budget for recruitment. Martindale has to change half his personnel every summer but finds and improves players. Fitzwater, Forrest, Nouble and others. We played Arabs off the park. Arbroath should have beaten Hibs, Morton should have beaten ‘Well. There’s not much to fear if we can hang on to Tiff and the best of our current players and recruit as well as Livi. Lets take this opportunity now and go for it! If we fail it shouldn’t be for lack of ambition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaggy Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 I think bbc have decided Killie will win the league anyway. 4 Friday night games in April, including the final game of the season https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/60666521 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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