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Remaining Fixtures


Fawlty Towers
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Looks like we are in for an exciting run in given 7 teams are competing for 4 places. I am sure that someone out there will have a spreadsheet that will tell us how it will all end up but I expect a few twists and turns.

Queens Park (5): Thistle (A), Accies (H), Ayr (A), Morton (A), Dundee (H)

Dundee (6): Arbroath (A), Raith (H), Morton (H), ICT (A), Cove (H), Queens Park (A)

Ayr (5): Morton (H), Thistle (A), Queens Park (H), Raith (H), ICT (A)

Thistle (5): Queens Park (H), Ayr (H), Accies (A), Arbroath (H), Raith (A)

Morton (6): Ayr (A), Accies (H), Dundee (A), Raith (H), Queens Park (H), Cove (A)

ICT (6): Raith (H), Arbroath (H), Cove (A), Accies (A), Dundee (H), Ayr (H)

Raith (7): Accies (H), ICT (A), Dundee (A), Arbroath (H), Morton (A), Ayr (A), Thistle (H)

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At the risk of jinxing it - Win all three home games and at Hamilton and the impetus will be with us going into a final game that will hopefully give us a shot at automatic promotion.

Given how steady the defence has been since Dools took the helm, it's not unrealistic.

There again, now that I've said it................

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Cliche alert.

For me we just have take it one game at time. The only game we have any influence on is our own. Get the best results we can and see how other games go. It will go down to the final week of fixtures to decide who wins the league and gets into play offs.

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I'd be hopeful if it was a case of just needing one other team to slip up but not two*. Besides Dundee and QP have still to play each other, which doesn't help. Think realistically we're looking at third place as our best likely finish. 

 

 

* I'm counting out Ayr as I'm assuming we have to win all five remaining games. 

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As @lady-isobel-barnett has said I can't see us winning the title as we need 2 teams to mess up. Agree with @Woodstock Jag that its Dundee's title to lose and that would be even more the case if the get 3 points at Arbroath as that looks one of the trickiest remaining fixtures.

As the remaining fixtures are repeats of round 2 if the same results happen again the table would, I think, finish like below

Dundee - 65 points
Queens Park - 61 points
Ayr United - 59 points
Thistle - 57 points
Morton - 54 points
Raith - 49 points
ICT - 48 points

It suggests somewhere around 55 points is required to get into the playoffs. However there are a couple of things that would point to ICT doing better with Morton and Ayr not doing so well.

For ICT round 2 was the peak of their injury crisis and assuming that is now over they should get better results than last round. Their form since the January transfer window allowed them to get some bodies in has picked up with 19 points in 12 games and a ppg of 1.58. If that continues they will be around 52.

Ayr have struggled since the January Transfer window as they never replaced Chalmers. Since then they have played 9 games and got 9 points for 1ppg since January. Seems unlikely that in the remaining 5 games they get 10 points as that would mean 2ppg so more likely they get 6 points and finish on around 55 points. I could add that since January they have been played all the teams they are about to play in the last 5 and only picked up 4 points so its going to take a wee bit of a change in form for Ayr to keep 3rd.

Morton have struggled since February after signing Ali Crawford and Imrie shoe-horning him into the team.  Since then 5 games played and only 3 points taken for a  ppg of 0.6. If Imrie corrects and Morton get back to pre-Crawford form of 1.6ppg then they still only get to 53 points

Our ppg under Doolan is 2ppg if that continued we would get to 60 points which seems unlikely now that Milne is injured. However our ppg under McCall's 24 games was 1.5ppg so that would suggest a range that means we would get somewhere between 55 and 58 points. That range looks good for a playoff spot and probably 3rd. If we did get to between 58-60 then we might well pip Queens for second but that's really only possible with 3 points on Saturday.

One potential positive for us is that by the time we play Arbroath and Raith there is a chance both have nothing to play for. All of the teams at the top of the table are playing each other so will likely all be playing for something until the last game. Could well be that if Morton, Ayr, ICT or Queens are in the playoffs they arrive knackered from having battled the previous weeks to get there.

 

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8 minutes ago, laukat said:

As @lady-isobel-barnett has said I can't see us winning the title as we need 2 teams to mess up. Agree with @Woodstock Jag that its Dundee's title to lose and that would be even more the case if the get 3 points at Arbroath as that looks one of the trickiest remaining fixtures.

As the remaining fixtures are repeats of round 2 if the same results happen again the table would, I think, finish like below

Dundee - 65 points
Queens Park - 61 points
Ayr United - 59 points
Thistle - 57 points
Morton - 54 points
Raith - 49 points
ICT - 48 points

It suggests somewhere around 55 points is required to get into the playoffs. However there are a couple of things that would point to ICT doing better with Morton and Ayr not doing so well.

For ICT round 2 was the peak of their injury crisis and assuming that is now over they should get better results than last round. Their form since the January transfer window allowed them to get some bodies in has picked up with 19 points in 12 games and a ppg of 1.58. If that continues they will be around 52.

Ayr have struggled since the January Transfer window as they never replaced Chalmers. Since then they have played 9 games and got 9 points for 1ppg since January. Seems unlikely that in the remaining 5 games they get 10 points as that would mean 2ppg so more likely they get 6 points and finish on around 55 points. I could add that since January they have been played all the teams they are about to play in the last 5 and only picked up 4 points so its going to take a wee bit of a change in form for Ayr to keep 3rd.

Morton have struggled since February after signing Ali Crawford and Imrie shoe-horning him into the team.  Since then 5 games played and only 3 points taken for a  ppg of 0.6. If Imrie corrects and Morton get back to pre-Crawford form of 1.6ppg then they still only get to 53 points

Our ppg under Doolan is 2ppg if that continued we would get to 60 points which seems unlikely now that Milne is injured. However our ppg under McCall's 24 games was 1.5ppg so that would suggest a range that means we would get somewhere between 55 and 58 points. That range looks good for a playoff spot and probably 3rd. If we did get to between 58-60 then we might well pip Queens for second but that's really only possible with 3 points on Saturday.

One potential positive for us is that by the time we play Arbroath and Raith there is a chance both have nothing to play for. All of the teams at the top of the table are playing each other so will likely all be playing for something until the last game. Could well be that if Morton, Ayr, ICT or Queens are in the playoffs they arrive knackered from having battled the previous weeks to get there.

 

So. If I can summarise. We don't have a scooby what is going to happen.

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On 4/2/2023 at 7:18 PM, Fawlty Towers said:

Looks like we are in for an exciting run in given 7 teams are competing for 4 places. I am sure that someone out there will have a spreadsheet that will tell us how it will all end up but I expect a few twists and turns.

Queens Park (5): Thistle (A), Accies (H), Ayr (A), Morton (A), Dundee (H)

Dundee (6): Arbroath (A), Raith (H), Morton (H), ICT (A), Cove (H), Queens Park (A)

Ayr (5): Morton (H), Thistle (A), Queens Park (H), Raith (H), ICT (A)

Thistle (5): Queens Park (H), Ayr (H), Accies (A), Arbroath (H), Raith (A)

Morton (6): Ayr (A), Accies (H), Dundee (A), Raith (H), Queens Park (H), Cove (A)

ICT (6): Raith (H), Arbroath (H), Cove (A), Accies (A), Dundee (H), Ayr (H)

Raith (7): Accies (H), ICT (A), Dundee (A), Arbroath (H), Morton (A), Ayr (A), Thistle (H)

I think it’ll go like this

Queens park will get 7 points (lose to us and Ayr) draw with Dundee

Ayr will get 6 points (lose to us, beat QP draw remaining)

Morton will get 9 points (Draw Ayr, Raith & Dundee, beat Accies & Cove)

ICT will get 6 points (Draw Raith, Ayr, Arbroath, beat Cove)

Raith will get 4 points (Draw ICT, Arbroath, Morton & Ayr)

Dundee will get 11 points (Draw Morton, Queens park, beat Raith, ICT & Cove)

Thistle will get 11 points (Draw Arbroath & Accies win the rest)

 

Dundee - 64

Queens park - 61

Thistle - 59

Ayr - 55

Morton - 52

ICT - 48

Raith - 45

 

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Can I set a mathematical challenge?

Is it possible to contrive a set of results which means that the top 7 clubs all end on the same points mark and the bottom 3 clubs also all end on the same points mark? Assuming that the goal difference can be fixed so that is even as well what happens to promotion, relegation and play offs?

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16 hours ago, Norgethistle said:

I think it’ll go like this

Queens park will get 7 points (lose to us and Ayr) draw with Dundee

Ayr will get 6 points (lose to us, beat QP draw remaining)

Morton will get 9 points (Draw Ayr, Raith & Dundee, beat Accies & Cove)

ICT will get 6 points (Draw Raith, Ayr, Arbroath, beat Cove)

Raith will get 4 points (Draw ICT, Arbroath, Morton & Ayr)

Dundee will get 11 points (Draw Morton, Queens park, beat Raith, ICT & Cove)

Thistle will get 11 points (Draw Arbroath & Accies win the rest)

 

Dundee - 64

Queens park - 61

Thistle - 59

Ayr - 55

Morton - 52

ICT - 48

Raith - 45

 

I'll raise you:

Dundee - 65

Queens park - 60

Thistle - 55

Ayr - 54

ICT - 52

Morton - 49

Raith - 46

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On 4/4/2023 at 10:47 PM, partickthedog said:

Can I set a mathematical challenge?

Is it possible to contrive a set of results which means that the top 7 clubs all end on the same points mark and the bottom 3 clubs also all end on the same points mark? Assuming that the goal difference can be fixed so that is even as well what happens to promotion, relegation and play offs?

No.

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Team Final Now   Results            
                             
Thistle 59 51     3 1 3 1     Ayr (H) Accies (A) Arbroath (H Raith (A)
Dundee 59 54   1 0 0 3 1   Raith (H) Morton (H) ICT (A) Cove (H) Queens Park (A)
Queens Park  59 54     0 1 1 3     Ayr (A) Morton (A) Dundee (H) Accies (H)
Ayr  59 50     0 3 3 3     Thistle (A) Queens Park (H) Raith (H) ICT (A)
Morton  57 44   3 3 3 1 3   Accies (H) Dundee (A) Raith (H) Queens Park (H) Cove (A)
ICT  57 45   3 3 3 3 0   Arbroath (H) Cove (A) Accies (A)  Dundee (H) Ayr (H)
                             
Team Final Now   Results            
                             
Thistle 61 51     3 3 3 1     Ayr (H) Accies (A) Arbroath (H Raith (A)
Dundee 60 54   1 1 0 3 1   Raith (H) Morton (H) ICT (A) Cove (H) Queens Park (A)
Queens Park  59 54     0 1 1 3     Ayr (A) Morton (A) Dundee (H) Accies (H)
Ayr  59 50     0 3 3 3     Thistle (A) Queens Park (H) Raith (H) ICT (A)
                           
                             
                             
                             
                             
                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
Edited by thistle4celtic1
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