Fawlty Towers is correct when he says it's the income and expenditure that are important.
Income
I thought away fans would drop off in season two. I didn't for one minute think the crowds of Aberdeen and Utd would be so pitiful compared to season 1. Nor did i see the car crash that Motherwell and St Mirren would become, so i'm a bit more forgiving when it comes to the club budgeting for away fans. There's also the question of TV games. Sure, you know the fixture list in advance but you can't predict which games will be on TV or the subsequent positive or negative impact that has.
Then there's the question of the split. How do you budget for that? Bottom 6? How do you predict how you'll be playing? Guesswork?
Home fans it always drops off in season 2 but if we go along with the 600 number (despite not knowing whether it's factual or what the breakdown is), could the BOD have reasonably seen that coming?
The budget was also set against a backdrop of wanting to "kick on" in Year 2 and that required keeping some of the good performers and bringing in a stronger backbone of the side. The problem with budgets is if you know what you want to spend it on before you've calculated it, there's a tendency to be more optimistic so that you overstate things. It happens all the time in different businesses.
So in summary, it's a little more complicated than just picking a number. The idea that some sort of fan based marketing campaign (fill the north stand?) would have made any significant difference is , fanciful. At best.
Expenditure
We handed out a number of contract renewals, presumably at a higher rate. This has to be done before you know whether your budgets are correct or not. You can't then revise the expenditure like a normal business, unless you pay up someone’s contract. And that costs cash.
We also brought in a better quality of player in Abdul, Seabourne and Frans. They will certainly be more costly than what we had in year 1. In addition, Lyle Taylor's loan in Year 2 was likely to be more costly too?
So without knowing the numbers, it's easy to see how budgets could be wrong.
As for a loss this year and then doomsday. Equally, i could point to crowds being up in season 3 on last year and the squad being smaller . Or maybe we'll sell Hendry for a million quid and we'll be sorted for a few seasons.
Survival in the SPFL is absolutely crucial to the future of PTFC. we are 5 years behind the main players with our youth-set up and we have no track record of delivery. Once that starts to produce-Lindsay looks like the first prospect- then the finances become a little easier. Until that point it's a combination of juggling, guesswork and a bit of luck.