thistle4celtic1 Posted April 14, 2017 Report Share Posted April 14, 2017 (sorry if the formatting is messed up) Back in late July last year, I charted the projected outcome of the SPL based on the handicap odds posted on oddsmaker. I used the previous 6 years SPL end of season tables to project the total number of wins/losses and draws for the season. Each teams own W-D-L totals were fabricated to reach their total projected points for the year. You could get 10/1, after adding their handicap points, on any team to win the league. As you can see they fancied Thistle to finish in 10th with 42 points from their 38 games. If you add each team's points to date (after 31 games) to their pre-season points handicap, the table right now for the purposes of cashing your bet looks like this: 1 Celtic 90 109.76% 2 Partick Thistle 83 102.50% 3 Aberdeen 80 96.97% 4 St Johnstone 79 94.23% 5 Kilmarnock 78 89.47% 6 Hamilton Academical 77 85.29% 7 Ross County 69 71.11% 8 Heart of Midlothian 66 73.33% 9 Dundee 66 65.22% 10 Inverness 65 59.52% 11 Motherwell 63 60.42% 12 Rangers 62 73.33% (The %'s show each team's current point total as a percentage of their projected points for the season) Too bad Celtic have the almost perfect season going, otherwise Alan Archibald would get manager of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted April 14, 2017 Report Share Posted April 14, 2017 Interesting analysis. Why are so many teams below the prediction, is it the number of draws or is it that the model didn't account for the fact that they play each other, using previous points totals only? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayfarer Posted April 14, 2017 Report Share Posted April 14, 2017 However you look at it. Archie IS the manager of the year not only what Thistle have achieved but also for the way he has conducted himself. I assume Rodgers will get it but that is as expected as rain on Fair Friday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gerrybritton9 Posted April 14, 2017 Report Share Posted April 14, 2017 Archie is not the manager of the year He's not a good manager- look away other lower league English clubs- nothing to see here. Look over there- go ask jimmy calderwood Hasn't it been mild recently...... ( whistles a wee tune....) Haven't the sellik done well ..., 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allyo Posted April 14, 2017 Report Share Posted April 14, 2017 Interesting analysis. Why are so many teams below the prediction, is it the number of draws or is it that the model didn't account for the fact that they play each other, using previous points totals only? My guess is that it's just because the season isn't finished Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Dastardly Posted April 14, 2017 Report Share Posted April 14, 2017 (edited) My guess is that it's just because the season isn't finished That, and 2 clubs doing much better than expected means less points for the rest Edited April 14, 2017 by Dick Dastardly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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