Woodstock Jag

Don't want to be the one to say it, but if we'd held on at Easter Road, we'd now be safe...

I'm looking at the other results, and I've got a feeling that we probably want Ross County to beat Hibs tonight, despite the fact that County are behind us in the table. If they do win, and St Mirren win at Rugby Park on Wednesday, a draw at Tynecastle secures safety before the final day. If tonight's game is a draw, and St Mirren beat Killie, any non victory at Tynecastle on our part still leaves us needing a draw and leaves Ross County needing either to win or hope that Hibs pick up something against Killie for them to be sure of safety. If tonight's game is a Hibs win they are safe, County need to win at Firhill if they are to be confident of safety, irrespective of the Killie St Mirren score. Or put most simply, we want the set of results that mean either we secure safety with a draw at Tynecastle or which leave County with nothing to play for on the final day.

The only scenario in which the goal difference comparison between us and Killie matters is if Killie draw their last 2 games and we lose both of ours. Their prior advantage in terms of goal difference means, therefore, that anything less than a 4-0 win for Hearts today doesn't work in our favour. They also have a goals scored advantage over us, so in effect we'd need Hearts to win 5-0 for things to get remotely interesting on goal difference. All other permutations where us and Killie are tied on points mean we are safe as one of Hibs and County would have to be on 36 or fewer points and we would be on at least 37. What is more important about this game is that if Hearts hold out for the win, a win of any description in one of our last 2 games sees us safe. ETA: actually there are two scenarios where 4-0 will do. If Killie beat St Mirren, County beat Hibs and Hibs beat Killie and we draw one of our games and lose the other by only 1 goal, then we'd stay up on goal difference ahead of Killie.

"Spat the dummy" over what, exactly?

Correct!

Longest serving current player at the club now, if we exclude that Archie may be nominally registered as a player. He's far from had it all his own way too. Much of the early days he was left playing second fiddle to a vastly inferior Liam Buchanan. Now here's a quiz question for you: going from debut to the present day, who is now the second longest serving contiguous player at Partick Thistle? The answer may surprise some people.

Are people forgetting that it was precisely against Hearts that the "Doolan in the hole" strategy got comprehensively torn to shreds?

I think we need to consider playing Erskine through the middle. He's just not comfortable out wide. The logic would be to take Craigen out for Lawless or Elliott. Hopefully Buaben will be fit for Wednesday though. I think we'll need more of a physical presence in the middle to support Fraser and Bannigan.

A draw is a fair result. There was some heart in mouth stuff in the first half and if anything each side scored in their weaker half of the game. The important thing is we have to hope our preferred centre back pairing are fit for Wednesday or we could be very vulnerable. If anything Hibs were more threatening after the sending off because they changed their shape and just threw everyone at us. Frustrating but can have few complaints. Gallagher had an outstanding game as did Bannigan.

Indeed. It would have been absolutely insane at the bottom without Hearts' points deduction. The league really does seem to have split quite cleanly this year too. There have been seasons where the battle to be in the top six has been so close that the team in 7th has ended up with more points than the team in 6th, but the gulf this year is massive. Had the top six been more competitive among one another, this is precisely the quality distribution a 12 team league with a split envisages.

From mucking about with the spreadsheet it seems clear to me the target still has to be 39 points. Quite a few permutations leave 2 teams on 39 and 3 on 38, a small number of permutations leave 1 team on 39 and 4 on 38, and anything else means relying on at least one of our rivals to get pretty much naff all between now and the end of the season.

You have to wonder how it didn't occur to them to have overt stand segregation, by putting Celtic fans on one side of the pitch and Rangers fans on the other, and just entirely cordon off the areas behind the goals. Putting them either side of a cordon is just asking for trouble.

I'm not suggesting that we do play Taylor and Doolan together (though it might be viable if you bench Erskine and play Doolan was a wide man) but wasn't it the Hibs game at Firhill where it led to their back four getting absolutely massacred?

I seem to recall last season someone observed that teams with Sean Welsh in the starting XI had avoided defeat for a well above average period of time.

Ignore the rest. We have enough stress to suppress ourselves. Two wins or a win and 2 draws is mathematical safety. Anything else isn't an obvious bonus until the final day.

The goal was excellent. People will make a lot (correctly) of Higginbotham's sublime cross, but Doolan's header was also superb. It was a tricky one to place just right but he did it perfectly.

He's what other teams call a barsteward. That's usually a good player to have.

If my memory serves, 40 points is guaranteed safety no matter what other results occur. There is a possible permutation with 4 teams on 40 and 1 team on 39. It's likely, though, that 38 should lead (just) to safety and that 37 might be enough. I suppose the thought process is do you think Ross County will pick up 6 points from their last 4 games. If no, a win of any description in their last 4 sees Hibs and in our last 3 now St Mirren or us, safe.

I don't know whether it's just that Higginbotham has been so active and testing that we're unable to distinguish, but I do feel Erskine has lost a little bit of the sparkle he had when he first came back on loan. I maintain that he's not very good when put out wide and would be inclined to play him more centrally in-behind Doolan or Taylor. Depends whether the midfield shape calls for it though thinking about other personnel.

Apologies in advance for the heresy, but Erskine's been a wee bit pish the last few games. Point probably fair. Higginbotham our main threat by far. We needed to be more clinical in that 30 minute window in the first half where their centre-back pairing were all over the shop.

The problem is in the process he'll probably give someone a career threatening injury in a position where we have no cover whatsoever.

Our Away record is the 6th best in the Division. It's only our home form that has put us in this dog fight and by quite a distance. We got double the points St Mirren got on the road so far.

Ah, but what if you have 5 teams tied within their head-to-heads too? Who plays the play-off for the play-offs and in what format?

I've been working through the permutations and whilst in most cases 39 points would make a team mathematically safe, there is a hypothetical scenario where all 5 play-off candidates could finish on 40 points. Week 1 Thistle beat St Mirren County beat Kilmarnock Hibs beat Hearts Week 2 Thistle beat Hibs St Mirren beat County Killie beat Hearts Week 3 County beat Hibs Thistle draw with Hearts Killie beat St Mirren Week 4 Hibs beat Killie County beat Thistle St Mirren beat Hearts If it's a 2, 3, 4 or even 5-way tie on points, goal difference and goals scored, does anyone know how the league goes about choosing a play-off candidate?

Excellent news. Would probably still start with Mair and Piccolo unless he's fully fit though.