Goals In The Last 10 Minutes

[redmike]

I know these can be frustrating, but I looked at the results for the first 5 fixtures this year, and we are by no means the worst.

 

I reckon there have been 18 goals scored in the last 10 minutes of a game.

 

4 against Kilmaronock

2 against Thistle, Celtic, Ross County, Hamilton, Dundee and Hibs

1 against Motherwell and Rangers.

 

Of course, they don't all change the result of the game like the 2 against us.

 

 

But I thought it was worth noting that we're not really worse than anyone else.

[eljaggo]

You really have to compare the number lost in the last 10 mins to the total goals lost. I suspect that would show a different picture.

[redmike]

There have been 88 goals scored in total, so 18 in the last 10 minutes is about 20%.

 

We've conceded 10 goals, 2 being in the last 10 minutes, so 20% of our goals are in the last 10 minutes.

 

About average, I would say.

[clarencegarter]

I think it would be interesting to see how many points have been lost by goals conceded in the last 10 mins over the past couple of seasons.

It does seem like we never learn and a lot must come down to a fitness aspect. The amount of times Iv watched a game and with 10-15 to go the players look dead on their feet.

I would also like to compare goals scored v goals conceded in the last 10mins. Again I can't think of us scoring too many!

[allyo]

Maybe we're just as fit as everyone else, but work much harder, therefore running out of steam before the end of the game. The management team must be applauded for inspiring such commitment.

[lady-isobel-barnett]

Repeating myself from another thread but losing only one goal on Saturday was rather fortunate. Not losing a goal till so late on was a minor miracle. Whilst I won't argue that we've a history of losing late goals/not seeing games out, I wouldn't describe Saturday's instance as typical.

[Ancipital]

I think it would be interesting to see how many points have been lost by goals conceded in the last 10 mins over the past couple of seasons.

It does seem like we never learn and a lot must come down to a fitness aspect. The amount of times Iv watched a game and with 10-15 to go the players look dead on their feet.

I would also like to compare goals scored v goals conceded in the last 10mins. Again I can't think of us scoring too many!

 

I started a look at this last season for us, I've finished it off tonight going through the whole league.

 

For last season, points won / lost in last 10 minutes added together.

 

Rangers 9

ICT 7

County 7

Aberdeen 6

Hearts 2

Dundee 0

St Johnstone 0

Motherwell -1

Celtic -2

Killie -4

Hamilton -7

Thistle - 16 (sixteen)

 

Couple of seemingly odd things there. Caley finishing bottom with second most points gained in last 10 definitely seems weird. Celtic with -2 not so much , most of the games they won were done and dusted long before the final furlong and they only had one winner after 85 minutes all season. Indeed of the 4 teams to take a point off them in the league, we were the only one to score the equaliser with more than 3 minutes to go.

 

There were 3 games where a team was winning with 10 to go and lost... Killie at home to Aberdeen, and you know the other two games.

 

We were also involved in the most games with a decisive goal (winner or equaliser) in the last 10 minutes with 11, but only 2 of those were in our favour to 9 against. Caley again top this table with 7 of 8 in their favour. Dundee had least games with late excitement, only 3 (1 for, 2 against)

[Winter of '63]

I started a look at this last season for us, I've finished it off tonight going through the whole league.

 

For last season, points won / lost in last 10 minutes added together.

 

Rangers 9

ICT 7

County 7

Aberdeen 6

Hearts 2

Dundee 0

St Johnstone 0

Motherwell -1

Celtic -2

Killie -4

Hamilton -7

Thistle - 16 (sixteen)

 

Couple of seemingly odd things there. Caley finishing bottom with second most points gained in last 10 definitely seems weird. Celtic with -2 not so much , most of the games they won were done and dusted long before the final furlong and they only had one winner after 85 minutes all season. Indeed of the 4 teams to take a point off them in the league, we were the only one to score the equaliser with more than 3 minutes to go.

 

There were 3 games where a team was winning with 10 to go and lost... Killie at home to Aberdeen, and you know the other two games.

 

We were also involved in the most games with a decisive goal (winner or equaliser) in the last 10 minutes with 11, but only 2 of those were in our favour to 9 against. Caley again top this table with 7 of 8 in their favour. Dundee had least games with late excitement, only 3 (1 for, 2 against)

These are very illuminating statistics Ancipital...it suggests a clear pattern rather than random coincidence. It's not only losing late goals but conceding them to lose points that is significant. It seems to be continuing this season and my recollection is that we also lost a lot of late goals and points in our first Season after getting promoted in particular.

 

Is this an issue with fitness/stamina or psychological? Probably both. I have read on a few occasions that the management team makes very good use of sports science. This seems like an obvious area for investigation and improvement.

[Ancipital]

The full stats in the last 10 for us since promotion- the points don't always square up due to 3 points a win

 

13/14: -1 .... 8 games (4 gains, 4 losses)

14/15: -7 ... 9 games (2 gains, 7 losses)

15/16 -1 ...8 games (3 gains, 5 losses)

16/17 -16.... 11 games (2 gains, 9 losses)

17/18 -3 ....2 games ( 0 gains, 2 losses) - based on 5 games

 

Total = 29 points lost in last 10 minutes, 11 gains, 27 losses. Though out of the completed seasons there are two terrible ones and two which are OK if not great.

 

The only game we've been losing since promotion with 10 minutes to go and won was away to St Mirren in in our first season up - it's a rare event so should be well noted.

 

In 15/16 we came closest to bucking the trend with last gasp winners at home to ICT (Stevenson cross and non celebration) and Motherwell (Lawless deflection) but a couple of post-split late goals brought us back down.

Edited September 11, 2017 by Ancipital

[Duke Gekantawa]

There is a lot more to it than fitness. Another factor is that it's so often that we enter the last 10 minutes with a slim lead and therefore something to lose and nothing to gain (apart from holding on of course). This is partly good (the fact that we are so often leading -or at least drawing- at 80 mins) and partly bad (because we never seem to add a second or be in a comfortable position. That is why a head to head comparison can mislead. Many teams (particularly if not very good) simply don't enter the final mins ahead, but may scrape the odd last minute equaliser or winner (presumably ICT last season). Therefor they never "lose points" in the last few mins- they've already lost the game by then. So in a way there is some positives to take from the frustration.

[Fearchar]

There is a lot more to it than fitness. Another factor is that it's so often that we enter the last 10 minutes with a slim lead and therefore something to lose and nothing to gain (apart from holding on of course). This is partly good (the fact that we are so often leading -or at least drawing- at 80 mins) and partly bad (because we never seem to add a second or be in a comfortable position. That is why a head to head comparison can mislead. Many teams (particularly if not very good) simply don't enter the final mins ahead, but may scrape the odd last minute equaliser or winner (presumably ICT last season). Therefor they never "lose points" in the last few mins- they've already lost the game by then. So in a way there is some positives to take from the frustration.

 

The other way to look on it is to consider how our teams (of various personnel) have played: there has been a consistent tendency to fall back and defend a one-goal lead, often unsuccessfully. The management of the final phase of games, in other words, is poor.

[Duke Gekantawa]

The other way to look on it is to consider how our teams (of various personnel) have played: there has been a consistent tendency to fall back and defend a one-goal lead, often unsuccessfully. The management of the final phase of games, in other words, is poor.

I think there is a certain inevitability to this, as opposing teams entering the final few minutes with a one goal deficit will tend to throw everything forward to get an equalizer. This tends to force the team ahead into sitting back and hoping to get them on the break. As such, it is more a consequence of entering the final stages (only) a single goal ahead.

 

The main problem to me isn't, therefore, mangament of the final phase, but rather profligacy in front of goal when on top. There were numerous games last season (the 1-1 draws at home to Motherwell and ICT particulalry spring to mind) where we had loads of chances to kill the game, and failed to do so. I don't think we even sat back much against ICT- they scored from one good cross right at the end, with everyone inevitably foward for them.

 

Statistically, more goals are scored in the final 10 minutes than at any other time. This is hardly surprising, because 1) teams will be more tired and more likely to make mistakes 2) if the game is still in the balance, as it often is, then usually at least one team will be really going for it and 3) The "final 10 minutes" includes injury time and is therefore actually longer than, say, the first 10 minutes. As such, if you're regularly going into the final 10 minutes a single goal ahead (or level), you are statistically likely to drop points in those final 10 minutes in an annoyingly significant proportion of those games.

 

Of course, there is also a psychological aspect which stems from all the above. The more that you concede in the final few minutes, the more that it might bear on your mind resulting in a mistake. Similalry, the opposition will likely know of such a "tendency" and will be heartened to push forward right to the end.

 

Last Saturday was different, as that equalizer was always coming. I has said to my mate a few minutes before they scored that it would be nice to hold on as we really do not deserve to be ahead. I certainly did not come out feeling deflated (as I did in the aforementioned draws last season), but rather happy with a point we barely deserved. The order or timing of the goals did not change that for me.

[Knightswood Jag]

Maybe we're just as fit as everyone else, but work much harder, therefore running out of steam before the end of the game. The management team must be applauded for inspiring such commitment.

Feel like we would concede a lot less in the last 10 if we would bring more than one sub on for example we could bring Devine on to stiffen up the defence or Edwards to add energy to the midfield.

[lady-isobel-barnett]

Feel like we would concede a lot less in the last 10 if we would bring more than one sub on for example we could bring Devine on to stiffen up the defence or Edwards to add energy to the midfield.

 

I've been at all the games where we've lost late goals in recent seasons. I don't think there's been an overriding cause for us losing them. Obviously defending too deep is the most common but I'm more meaning the cause for us doing that. I sense not holding the ball up in attacking areas and/or forwards losing possession too easily may be high up in the list. Bringing on a defender late on (assuming we've a sub to spare) could aggravate the situation and just make us defend even deeper. I get your point about Edwards but unfortunately he's rather guilty of giving the ball away.

[jagfox]

So going by the stats, the more points we give away in the last ten minutes of games the higher up the league we finish

Edited September 13, 2017 by jagfox