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Falkirk v Thistle Boxing Day

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1 hour ago, McCall Out said:

Of course it matters how well or badly the next manager is. As I have said, getting out of this league this season is of paramount importance. Just making the playoffs (without promotion) will be a total failure for a manager who was backed by the board to keep us in the Championship, then backed again to get us out of League One. I may be many things, but I'm not a fool and I am well aware that there are no guarantees that a change of manager will bring success, but in my opinion, the odds of success are greater with someone other than McCall in charge.

Lets start by looking at his track record

 

Easy-Capture1.png

That is an excellent record at Falkirk and Ayr, but those 2 apart, what we are seeing now is pretty much his average. It is therefore not unreasonable to extrapolate this and winning roughly one in every 3 is not going to be good enough. The average managerial win rate in Scotland over the last 10 years is around 40%, so if we get an average manager, the chances will be better than sticking with McCall.

Secondly, I don't buy this team building argument and I'll start with why did he need to rebuild the team ? Breaking down his 41 games in this stint, he won 9 out of 16 between taking over from Caldwell and January. This is a very respectable 56% win rate and if that had continued would have seen us well clear of any relegation threat. We know what happened next, no wins in 7. So far this year we have won 5 out of 14 or 35.7%, around bang average for a McCall team. Remember that this is against mainly part-time league one sides.

 

Shocking statistic alert ! Queens Park are the only full-time team that we beat in 2020.

 

And then the myth that he can build a team. I don't recall what happened at Falkirk, but I would suggest that over 30 games, this was not a team building. I do recall that QotS improved hugely when Chisholm took over from him and at Ayr it took some time before he got them winning. They had to suffer a Championship relegation before he got it right. I don't think that he has that time here. As I have said, failure to gain promotion this season will be a failure that could be catastrophic.

The other myth is that he built the Thistle Championship promotion team. No ! I will give you that he found some good players with potential and that there might be a role for him as a scout somewhere, but it was Jackie Mac who blended these players into a team and released their potential. I think that this time round he has again found some good players with potential. We now need a Jackie Mac type (not Jackie) to take the players to the next level.

I am struggling to understand your stats :-

Average for managers is “around 40”.  McCalls average is 38.9% which I am sure in anybody’s book is around 40%. In fact his % win rate at Thistle is even closer to 40 %
What would be better stats for your argument against McCall would be win stats for league winners and/ or clubs that got promoted via playoff.

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1 hour ago, McCall Out said:

Of course it matters how well or badly the next manager is. As I have said, getting out of this league this season is of paramount importance. Just making the playoffs (without promotion) will be a total failure for a manager who was backed by the board to keep us in the Championship, then backed again to get us out of League One. I may be many things, but I'm not a fool and I am well aware that there are no guarantees that a change of manager will bring success, but in my opinion, the odds of success are greater with someone other than McCall in charge.

Lets start by looking at his track record

 

Easy-Capture1.png

That is an excellent record at Falkirk and Ayr, but those 2 apart, what we are seeing now is pretty much his average. It is therefore not unreasonable to extrapolate this and winning roughly one in every 3 is not going to be good enough. The average managerial win rate in Scotland over the last 10 years is around 40%, so if we get an average manager, the chances will be better than sticking with McCall.

Secondly, I don't buy this team building argument and I'll start with why did he need to rebuild the team ? Breaking down his 41 games in this stint, he won 9 out of 16 between taking over from Caldwell and January. This is a very respectable 56% win rate and if that had continued would have seen us well clear of any relegation threat. We know what happened next, no wins in 7. So far this year we have won 5 out of 14 or 35.7%, around bang average for a McCall team. Remember that this is against mainly part-time league one sides.

 

Shocking statistic alert ! Queens Park are the only full-time team that we beat in 2020.

 

And then the myth that he can build a team. I don't recall what happened at Falkirk, but I would suggest that over 30 games, this was not a team building. I do recall that QotS improved hugely when Chisholm took over from him and at Ayr it took some time before he got them winning. They had to suffer a Championship relegation before he got it right. I don't think that he has that time here. As I have said, failure to gain promotion this season will be a failure that could be catastrophic.

The other myth is that he built the Thistle Championship promotion team. No ! I will give you that he found some good players with potential and that there might be a role for him as a scout somewhere, but it was Jackie Mac who blended these players into a team and released their potential. I think that this time round he has again found some good players with potential. We now need a Jackie Mac type (not Jackie) to take the players to the next level.

Probably worth restating that my opinion is McCall has to get us at least into the playoffs by the end of the season and show signs that he's created a team that can score goals.

That said this link gives a breakdown of Thistle maangers and win % https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Partick_Thistle_F.C._managers

Its missing Caldwell (38.1) and McCall's current stint (34.15%). Of the now 27 maangers of Thistle only  7  thistle managers have higher than 40% (McCall first spell, Tommy Bryce, David Meiklejohn, Jackie McNamara, Bertie Auld 2nd spell and John Lambie first and third spell) 

There's a couple of notible things in that list. The most successful spells we've had McParland, Auld first spell, Lambie second spell, Archibald don't get 40%. Tommy Bryce did but as anyone who witnessed his spell in charge there is no apetitie for our 6th most successful maanger on this measure to return.  So perhaps win rate as a measure on its own is not a great barometer as circumstances and expectations matter.

So perhaps a better comparision is on Lambie's first season in league 2 as well as Dick Campbell as expectations would have been similar?

Lambie took over in March 99 and had season 99/2000 before getting us promoted in 2000/1. In 99/2000 we won 12 games of 36 so a win % of 33% and a 5th paced finish. Campbell had season 2005/6 in which we won 16 of 36. So a % of 44.4.

So why were people happy for Lambie for continue and desperate for Campbell to leave?

I would suggest the answer to that lies in what the fans observed. Under Lambie you could see improvement in the squad and the style of play. Under Campbell you could see deterioration in both. To my mind I'm seeing improvement under McCall and I completely accept that others may not.

McCalls first spell ended in April 2011. Of the 2012/13 squad Fox, Archibald, Rowson, Paton, Doolan, Bannigan and Erskine were signed by McCall. McCall had also signed Balatoni on loan and I believe Taylor-Sinclair on a pre-contract. That is a fair chunk of the 2012/13 so you can definetly see an eye for a player. McNamara definetly got the team playing a better passing game but that style struggled away from home and without Archibald's tweaks we probably wouldn't have got promoted.

So did McCall assemble the bulk of the 2012/13 team? I think he did. Would he have got us promoted in 12/13? No, he was struggling off field and needed the break he took. McNamara and Archie were the managers that deserve the plaudits for that success.

Does anyone want Archie or McNamara back as manager? I would suggest not as neither have proved any good at rebuilding teams. Archie failed when we got relegated, McNamara failed to rebuild Dundee United after selling most of their talent.

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13 minutes ago, Yellow & Redneck said:

For Thistle fans, mediocrity will suffice. That's the only way in which people can justify the last four or so years. 

Away and don’t talk pish. What supporter in their right mind accepts mediocrity? What do you do about not accepting it?

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4 minutes ago, jaggy said:

Away and don’t talk pish. What supporter in their right mind accepts mediocrity? What do you do about not accepting it?

Jags supporters. I've seen it time and again on this very forum. As long as they don't support "the Old Furm" or "the Erse Cheeks" many seem quite content. We are mid-table in the 3rd tier of Scottish football for crying out loud!

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22 minutes ago, Yellow & Redneck said:

For Thistle fans, mediocrity will suffice. That's the only way in which people can justify the last four or so years. 

To my mind the biggest mistake we made was allowing Archie to conitnue after the 4-0 loss to Ross County. The board were too loyal and accepting that we were destined to be a yo-yo club rather than pursure the more ruthless approach of  a St Johnstone or Hamilton to retain our premier league status so I have some sympathy with the idea that mediocrity has been accepted in the last 4 years.

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36 minutes ago, Yellow & Redneck said:

Jags supporters. I've seen it time and again on this very forum. As long as they don't support "the Old Furm" or "the Erse Cheeks" many seem quite content. We are mid-table in the 3rd tier of Scottish football for crying out loud!

So how do we not accept this? Walk away? Some sort of protest? What you doing about or are just going with the flow the same as the rest of us but slagging others off?

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1 hour ago, Dick Dastardly said:

In this spell at thistle, his average is 34.15% - well bellow the average

His average this season is 35.71% - well bellow the average

An average manager would do better.

Even a Dick gets it ! (Sorry mate. I think we're on the same side.)

The form this season is not good enough and shows no sign of improving. Remeber, Queens Park are the only full time team that we beat in the whole of 2020 !

Look at the comments on here from pretty much every game and you see the same complains repeated. No pace, no attacking threat, endless crosses into nobody in particular, ponderous cross field passes. Still nothing changes. McCall's history shows no record of being able to turn round a team in the short term, and that is what we need, not when we fail to get promoted, but right now.

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3 hours ago, McCall Out said:

Of course it matters how well or badly the next manager is. As I have said, getting out of this league this season is of paramount importance. Just making the playoffs (without promotion) will be a total failure for a manager who was backed by the board to keep us in the Championship, then backed again to get us out of League One. I may be many things, but I'm not a fool and I am well aware that there are no guarantees that a change of manager will bring success, but in my opinion, the odds of success are greater with someone other than McCall in charge.

Lets start by looking at his track record

 

Easy-Capture1.png

That is an excellent record at Falkirk and Ayr, but those 2 apart, what we are seeing now is pretty much his average. It is therefore not unreasonable to extrapolate this and winning roughly one in every 3 is not going to be good enough. The average managerial win rate in Scotland over the last 10 years is around 40%, so if we get an average manager, the chances will be better than sticking with McCall.

Secondly, I don't buy this team building argument and I'll start with why did he need to rebuild the team ? Breaking down his 41 games in this stint, he won 9 out of 16 between taking over from Caldwell and January. This is a very respectable 56% win rate and if that had continued would have seen us well clear of any relegation threat. We know what happened next, no wins in 7. So far this year we have won 5 out of 14 or 35.7%, around bang average for a McCall team. Remember that this is against mainly part-time league one sides.

 

Shocking statistic alert ! Queens Park are the only full-time team that we beat in 2020.

 

And then the myth that he can build a team. I don't recall what happened at Falkirk, but I would suggest that over 30 games, this was not a team building. I do recall that QotS improved hugely when Chisholm took over from him and at Ayr it took some time before he got them winning. They had to suffer a Championship relegation before he got it right. I don't think that he has that time here. As I have said, failure to gain promotion this season will be a failure that could be catastrophic.

The other myth is that he built the Thistle Championship promotion team. No ! I will give you that he found some good players with potential and that there might be a role for him as a scout somewhere, but it was Jackie Mac who blended these players into a team and released their potential. I think that this time round he has again found some good players with potential. We now need a Jackie Mac type (not Jackie) to take the players to the next level.

His record at Airdrie was pretty decent- he took over a team that were skint and at deaths door who everyone tipped to finish bottom but who finished a close second to us

Im not arguing that his record is very poor in 2020 but regarding full time teams Airdrie are full time and we beat them 

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5 minutes ago, jaggy said:

So how do we not accept this? Walk away? Some sort of protest? What you doing about or are just going with the flow the same as the rest of us but slagging others off?

I have made my opinion known to Jacqui Low. Surprisingly no reply

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14 minutes ago, Third Lanark said:

His record at Airdrie was pretty decent- he took over a team that were skint and at deaths door who everyone tipped to finish bottom but who finished a close second to us

Im not arguing that his record is very poor in 2020 but regarding full time teams Airdrie are full time and we beat them 

I believe Airdrie have a mixture of full time and part time players. Even so, just 2 wins against full time times in 2020 (11 games) is still dire.

It also provides evidence that McCall does better when up against it. He did better with GC's players last season and this season did better when the injuries were at their worst and player selection was enforced

Edited by McCall Out

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2 hours ago, laukat said:

Probably worth restating that my opinion is McCall has to get us at least into the playoffs by the end of the season and show signs that he's created a team that can score goals.

That said this link gives a breakdown of Thistle maangers and win % https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Partick_Thistle_F.C._managers

Its missing Caldwell (38.1) and McCall's current stint (34.15%). Of the now 27 maangers of Thistle only  7  thistle managers have higher than 40% (McCall first spell, Tommy Bryce, David Meiklejohn, Jackie McNamara, Bertie Auld 2nd spell and John Lambie first and third spell) 

There's a couple of notible things in that list. The most successful spells we've had McParland, Auld first spell, Lambie second spell, Archibald don't get 40%. Tommy Bryce did but as anyone who witnessed his spell in charge there is no apetitie for our 6th most successful maanger on this measure to return.  So perhaps win rate as a measure on its own is not a great barometer as circumstances and expectations matter.

So perhaps a better comparision is on Lambie's first season in league 2 as well as Dick Campbell as expectations would have been similar?

Lambie took over in March 99 and had season 99/2000 before getting us promoted in 2000/1. In 99/2000 we won 12 games of 36 so a win % of 33% and a 5th paced finish. Campbell had season 2005/6 in which we won 16 of 36. So a % of 44.4.

So why were people happy for Lambie for continue and desperate for Campbell to leave?

I would suggest the answer to that lies in what the fans observed. Under Lambie you could see improvement in the squad and the style of play. Under Campbell you could see deterioration in both. To my mind I'm seeing improvement under McCall and I completely accept that others may not.

McCalls first spell ended in April 2011. Of the 2012/13 squad Fox, Archibald, Rowson, Paton, Doolan, Bannigan and Erskine were signed by McCall. McCall had also signed Balatoni on loan and I believe Taylor-Sinclair on a pre-contract. That is a fair chunk of the 2012/13 so you can definetly see an eye for a player. McNamara definetly got the team playing a better passing game but that style struggled away from home and without Archibald's tweaks we probably wouldn't have got promoted.

So did McCall assemble the bulk of the 2012/13 team? I think he did. Would he have got us promoted in 12/13? No, he was struggling off field and needed the break he took. McNamara and Archie were the managers that deserve the plaudits for that success.

Does anyone want Archie or McNamara back as manager? I would suggest not as neither have proved any good at rebuilding teams. Archie failed when we got relegated, McNamara failed to rebuild Dundee United after selling most of their talent.

Campbell is a strange one. His teams are not great to watch (he was sacked by Ross because of the style of play despite being top of the league) but are very effective, particularly at getting out of this league. I recall Lambie's teams also being hard to beat and a 33% win rate suggests a lot of draws. I think the problem that McCall has is that we are again hard to beat and we do get the draws, but we don't score enough to turn at least some of the draws into wins.

Edited by Dick Dastardly

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2 hours ago, McCall Out said:

Even a Dick gets it ! (Sorry mate. I think we're on the same side.)

The form this season is not good enough and shows no sign of improving. Remeber, Queens Park are the only full time team that we beat in the whole of 2020 !

Look at the comments on here from pretty much every game and you see the same complains repeated. No pace, no attacking threat, endless crosses into nobody in particular, ponderous cross field passes. Still nothing changes. McCall's history shows no record of being able to turn round a team in the short term, and that is what we need, not when we fail to get promoted, but right now.

Like I said, you should be showing the record of managers who got promoted. Probably also show their stats in the season they got promoted and probably also the division they were in. Then the stats become a bit more relevant. This season his record is 40%, which appears to be your threshold as an average manager.

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11 minutes ago, Lenziejag said:

Like I said, you should be showing the record of managers who got promoted. Probably also show their stats in the season they got promoted and probably also the division they were in. Then the stats become a bit more relevant. This season his record is 40%, which appears to be your threshold as an average manager.

This season, we have 5 wins (Queens Park, Airdrie, East Fife, Montrose, Forfar)  , 5 draws (Queen of the South, Falkirk(2), Morton, Dumbarton) and 4 defeats (St. Mirren, Clyde, Cove, Peterhead). 5/14 = 35.7% as I have already stated.

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33 minutes ago, Lenziejag said:

Like I said, you should be showing the record of managers who got promoted. Probably also show their stats in the season they got promoted and probably also the division they were in. Then the stats become a bit more relevant. This season his record is 40%, which appears to be your threshold as an average manager.

Like DD said. 35%. However I guess you are looking at league games only which as you say is 40%. However staying with league games, are you satisfied with 5th place (outside of playoffs ?) Are we over or under performing ? Are we getting better or worse ? (33% league wins October, 50% November, 25% December)

Why do you persist in defending mediocrity

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1 hour ago, McCall Out said:

Like DD said. 35%. However I guess you are looking at league games only which as you say is 40%. However staying with league games, are you satisfied with 5th place (outside of playoffs ?) Are we over or under performing ? Are we getting better or worse ? (33% league wins October, 50% November, 25% December)

Why do you persist in defending mediocrity

Its called having a point of view. Its what the forum is for. 

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1 hour ago, McCall Out said:

Like DD said. 35%. However I guess you are looking at league games only which as you say is 40%. However staying with league games, are you satisfied with 5th place (outside of playoffs ?) Are we over or under performing ? Are we getting better or worse ? (33% league wins October, 50% November, 25% December)

Why do you persist in defending mediocrity

I am not defending it. I am questioning the relevance of your data. You are talking about the importance of getting promoted but include non league data in your stats. You state that around 40% is the average for managers and we are sure to get someone better than McCall who has a league average this season of 40%. You gave a worst case scenario of 5 full time teams in league 1 next season but your best case was simply McCall resigning. You say we will have to go part time, but these clubs with less resources will be able to stay full time. What is your logic ?

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The only stat that matters is the final league table. At the moment we are not mediocre but failing miserably. Imo where we end up playing next season decides if McCall has done his job or not. Also with regard beating full time teams, Falkirk fans complaining they haven't beaten any full time teams since they came into league 1.

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5 hours ago, McCall Out said:

I have made my opinion known to Jacqui Low. Surprisingly no reply

You should have put it on PowerPoint 

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1 hour ago, Lenziejag said:

I am not defending it. I am questioning the relevance of your data. You are talking about the importance of getting promoted but include non league data in your stats. You state that around 40% is the average for managers and we are sure to get someone better than McCall who has a league average this season of 40%. You gave a worst case scenario of 5 full time teams in league 1 next season but your best case was simply McCall resigning. You say we will have to go part time, but these clubs with less resources will be able to stay full time. What is your logic ?

At least I have a plan.
I have laid out why it is important to get promoted THIS season, and why, in my opinion, we have a better chance of achieving that with a change of manager. I have also said how I would finance that and backed all of that up with some data to provide evidence of why I have this view.

As far as I can see, your alternative is to cross your fingers and hope that McCall can pull a rabbit from a hat. So why do you think that has a better chance of success and what data do you have to back this up ?

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