Dick Dastardly Posted March 16, 2015 Report Share Posted March 16, 2015 I am not one who has considered us to be in any real threat from relegation all season and I think that a lot of the nonsense was to do with people trying to hype up a season of midtable mediocrity. That said, I've been looking at the figures and it would take an upturn of form, that neither has threatened to show, from both St. Mirren and Motherwell to be able to overtake our 31 points. Even if we were not to get another point, St.Mirren have 21 points from 29 games which if it continued would see them have 27 or 28 by the end of 38 games. Motherwell currently have 22 points, which would see them move to 28 or 29 points by the end of the season. Obviously I would like to see us do better and we should have the chance to overhaul at least one from Killie, Dundee, St.Johnstone or Hamilton, but interms of relegation, 31 points will be enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allyo Posted March 16, 2015 Report Share Posted March 16, 2015 (edited) I don't think so. If we lost every other game then Motherwell and Ross County would have closed most of the gap, and remember that post split these teams have to pick up some points, one way or another. At one point I did think that 30 would be enough this season, but not now. i'd say that Thistle need 2 more wins. It wouldn't guarantee anything but that's the point at which i think safety (10th) would become likely. A single win if it was over Motherwell might well do it. But one game at a time. I think that being on the doorstep of safety has knocked us off track a bit. Hopefully we're getting it back together. we're well capable of stretching the gap rather than holding on. Edited March 16, 2015 by allyo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ancipital Posted March 16, 2015 Report Share Posted March 16, 2015 36 would have been enough for safety last season and I think the same would do so again- of course it's also important who the points are picked up against, I think if we beat Motherwell and drew with Saints and County post split that would probably be enough even if we lost all the other games. The fact there are 3 teams below us gives us a bit of a cushion, it's reasonable that one could go on a good run and pick up 10 points after the split, the chances of 2 doing that are pretty slim. FWIW I think we'll end up on about 40 (2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats in the last 9) and we'll stay 9th until the end of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert's Ghost Posted March 16, 2015 Report Share Posted March 16, 2015 If we end up on 31 points, it will mean Motherwell will have beaten us twice, which puts them on 28 points already! They'd have to do pretty badly in the other 7 games not to pass 31. I think we need 2 more wins to have a chance of safety, 3 to be sure. Teams always pick up points when they're fighting for their lives. Much depends on Killie - they must feel safe now but will they push for top 6 or just roll over for the more motivated teams? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Gums Murphy Posted March 16, 2015 Report Share Posted March 16, 2015 That said, I've been looking at the figures and it would take an upturn of form, that neither has threatened to show, from both St. Mirren and Motherwell to be able to overtake our 31 points. Even if we were not to get another point, St.Mirren have 21 points from 29 games which if it continued would see them have 27 or 28 by the end of 38 games. Motherwell currently have 22 points, which would see them move to 28 or 29 points by the end of the season. The anomaly being the bottom 6 where we have to play each other though. That's almost what ultimately cost Hibs last season. For what it's worth, I don't think there's any chance now we'll finish bottom. Not just the points now but the nature of their defeat Saturday conceding in last minute. If we end this weekend 9 points or better ahead of Motherwell then I reckon we'll be safe even from play off. They have Hamilton this weekend so no doubt they'll be looking at this as a must win for them. After Sat, I think 2 more wins between now & end of season will see us safe. Preferably sooner than later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel G Posted March 16, 2015 Report Share Posted March 16, 2015 Think the split is a good thing for the team in our position. When your Motherwells / St. Middens/ Ross Countys play each other they can't all get 3 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allyo Posted March 16, 2015 Report Share Posted March 16, 2015 Also, as I mentioned on another thread, the split suits us over the next few weeks as it should keep the middle four motivated. We don't play them but everyone else does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ian_mac Posted March 16, 2015 Report Share Posted March 16, 2015 I think Motherwell will beat Hamilton this weekend. Accies are in complete freefall and at this moment in time I think they are the worst team in the league. If we can get another 4 points before the split I won't have any worries about finishing in the bottom 2. I think it's definitely looking like St. Mirren and Motherwell for the drop. Long overdue in Well's case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allyo Posted March 16, 2015 Report Share Posted March 16, 2015 If we can survive this season over St Mirren and Motherwell, having survived last season over Hibs and Hearts, that will be a pretty big achievement, and one that no one would have predicted when we were promoted. That's some pretty established clubs that we'd be relegating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
partick monkey Posted March 16, 2015 Report Share Posted March 16, 2015 Anything less than a win against St Johnstone there and I feel we'd have been favourites for the play off spot. I left Firhill on Saturday feeling more relieved than ecstatic but there are still 27 points up for grabs so we're not in the clear just yet. For selfish reasons I hope St Mirren and Motherwell can do enough to push County down to last place however unlikely that is looking now. Scottish football needs a strong St Mirren and Motherwell. I hate Ross County. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allyo Posted March 16, 2015 Report Share Posted March 16, 2015 Anything less than a win against St Johnstone there and I feel we'd have been favourites for the play off spot. But that's just your paranoia. Many Thistle fans may have felt the same. But you'd be hard pushed to have found a neutral (or a Motherwell, St Mirren or County fan) to agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodstock Jag Posted March 17, 2015 Report Share Posted March 17, 2015 Since the inauguration of the 12 team league with a five game split, the median number of points required to finish 10th has been 35. So, put another way, 35 points gives you, in general, a 50:50 chance of survival. The mean number of points required for survival, however, is slightly higher, at 36. This suggests that if you are in a more demanding year, it will be more more demanding than if you are in a less demanding year, where it will be less less demanding. The modal number of points required to finish 10th is 34 points. In other words, the amount of points most frequently need to survive is 34. The most points ever needed for 10th was 42, and 41 was twice required. The lowest total ever required was 33. This all assumes a clear safety over 11th and not on goal difference, where we have an advantage that short of brutal capitulation should not be overturned. My instinct, based on these numbers, is that we should probably be safe on 36 points or so, and would be very unlucky if we went down on 40 or more. Put simply, win 3 of your next 9 games Jags, and do it sooner rather than later so we can turn to next season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThickAsThieves Posted March 18, 2015 Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 No real point in doing this but I'm bored. This is what I expect from the teams below us... Ross County WIN Kilmarnock (H) LOSE Dundee Utd (A) WIN St. Johnstone (H) DRAW St. Mirren (A) Motherwell WIN Hamilton (H) DRAW Kilmarnock (A) WIN St. Mirren (H) ? Partick Thistle (A) St. Mirren DRAW St. Johnstone (A) LOSE Celtic (H) LOSE Motherwell (A) DRAW Ross County (H) Ross County Played: 33, Points: 32 Partick Thistle Played: 29, Points: 31 Motherwell Played: 32, Points: 29 St. Mirren Played: 33, Points: 23 For us, I don't think we'll get anything away from Aberdeen & Celtic. Have a feeling we'll win on Saturday though, so... Partick Thistle Played: 32, Points: 34 Ross County Played: 33, Points: 32 Motherwell Played: 32, Points: 29 St. Mirren Played: 33, Points: 23 Therefore, based on all of this, if we beat Motherwell in the final game before the split, we'll pretty much be safe. Draw and I'd still be very confident. The fact that I've just sat and done all this still tells you all I'm bricking it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert's Ghost Posted March 18, 2015 Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 The wheels are off at DU, so County can get something there. But you won't be far off the mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allyo Posted March 18, 2015 Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 That's quite scary. Particularly as it relies on us winning on Saturday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Third Lanark Posted March 18, 2015 Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 I find it difficult to pinpoint a points total where we would be safe from relegation just because of the nature of football. Obviously it's easier to say than do but we just need to make sure we go out and win as many games as possible to ensure we avoid relegation. Unlike the other 3 teams we are in a battle with its completely in our hands. It's not in the other 3 teams hands because they know we need to lose at least 3 more than them to go down - so it really is in our hands now what happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindau Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 If we end up on 31 points, it will mean Motherwell will have beaten us twice, which puts them on 28 points already! They'd have to do pretty badly in the other 7 games not to pass 31. I think we need 2 more wins to have a chance of safety, 3 to be sure. Teams always pick up points when they're fighting for their lives. Much depends on Killie - they must feel safe now but will they push for top 6 or just roll over for the more motivated teams? Killie are on a great run and Locke is looking for the job full time, so I don't see them rolling over anyone! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 I only started to worry when I realised just how poor we'd been against the dross below us this season who we'll have to play five times after the split. We've taken 18 points against teams in the top half of the league, but only 13 against those in the bottom half, which is the worst record in the whole division. It's brilliant pumping Hamilton and Caley but it will all be for nothing if we can't grind out results against pish like Motherwell and St Mirren. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lady-isobel-barnett Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Not done any arithmetic but just a gut feeling that we'll struggle to be safe by the split without the assistance of the teams below us. I feel tho' that come the split we'll have just enough points to remain reasonably clear of 11th place. Mindful of Hibs last season I still reckon with the bottom teams playing each other we'll be ok. My slight pessimism emanates from our regular failure to get anything from the scrappy games with teams below us. Any optimism comes from the likelihood of the three teams currently below us canceling out results against each other and hopefully not closing the gap too much pre split. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barney Rubble Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Bear in mind that to date we have taken only 9 points from a possible 24 against the three teams currently below us. A possible 12 points are still available against these teams, so it's up to us to inflict maximum damage in those games above all. However, by winning the next three before meeting Motherwell again, the previous sentence would be rendered pretty much immaterial. How about it Jags? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veejag Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 I will be ragin if Ross County finish above us again. I hate them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juan Carlos I Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 If we end up on 31 points, it will mean Motherwell will have beaten us twice, which puts them on 28 points already! They'd have to do pretty badly in the other 7 games not to pass 31. But of course, we'd have to do even worse to finish on 31 points... and if we don't get another point (not sure why this idea is being floated?!) we'd deserve relegation. Far more likely that we'll pick up a couple more wins and a few more points and finish 9th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda-jag Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 the more wins the better between now and end of season. then we can also do this sooner rather than later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sunnylaw Jag Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 Or indeed sing this to the other five teams in the bottom six Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veejag Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 the more wins the better between now and end of season. then we can also do this sooner rather than later. Seen the literal video version? Amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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