Jags (2) 🔴🟡 vs Diamonds(2)♦️♦️

[jagfox]

Well, here we go after another Partick Heartache last season can we go one better this season and win the end of season tournament to take us back up?

It is a big ask with games coming thick and fast over the next few weeks.

At least the Premiership team hasn't been decided so the candidates there will be playing competitive games going into their match with the championship candidate, hopefully picking up a few knocks and even a suspension on the way.

We played some scintillating stuff last season but this year while still playing some good stuff we also seem a bit more pragmatic which could hold us in good stead.

The squad is fit apart from long term absentees Adeloye and Lawless so the manager has a squad to work with.

First things first though, a tough looking match on Tuesday away in Airdrie. We have lost and drawn there so hopefully we can take a win into the second leg and get a chance to progress against Raith Rovers.

The beauty of the playoffs is you just don't know what is going to happen.

Airdrie fans seem quite pessimistic going into our matchup but I'm sure like us their players will have a different outlook.

May the fun and games commence.

Edited May 10, 2024 by jagfox

[partickthedog]

Looks to me that barring injury, we have 10 nailed down starters.

Mitchell, McMillan, McBeth, Muirhead, Milne, Neilson, McInroy, Robinson, Graham, Fitzpatrick. 

The 11th would normally have been Lawless. This looks to be a choice between O'Reilly, Stanway and Bannigan. The first would mean a back 5 and therefore a change to the standard formation. The other 2 means going for youth or experience, and inevitably somebody (perhaps McInroy) playing in an unnatural position on the right. Not quite sure what the answer is, but I think I have identified the questions!

[jagfox]

2 minutes ago, partickthedog said:

Looks to me that barring injury, we have 10 nailed down starters.

Mitchell, McMillan, McBeth, Muirhead, Milne, Neilson, McInroy, Robinson, Graham, Fitzpatrick. 

The 11th would normally have been Lawless. This looks to be a choice between O'Reilly, Stanway and Bannigan. The first would mean a back 5 and therefore a change to the standard formation. The other 2 means going for youth or experience, and inevitably somebody (perhaps McInroy) playing in an unnatural position on the right. Not quite sure what the answer is, but I think I have identified the questions!

I'd say it is clear Doolan has placed McInroy in the rough area Lawless patrolled. This leaves a space in the middle and I'd be inclined to go with Stanway as he has really impressed me this season.

I agree in that I am not too comfortable with Kerr in that role, as he lacks pace and the ability to beat a man out wide and was noticeably one footed versus Ayr United.

We will have to wait and see, I guess.

[lady-isobel-barnett]

Since Wee Stevie's injury it looks like we're playing a more flexible set up up front. Most notably Fitzpatrick switches wings occasionally and moves in centrally once in a while. McInroy does the Lawless stint but is naturally less comfortable down the right flank. He often drifts into his more natural position, hence Fitz moving across. 

Further back I also sense we're prepared to change to a back three (or back five if we've a lead to protect). In short we haven't got quite as good players as this time last year but look like we're less reliant on such a rigid set up.

[Auld Jag]

I know we beat them 4-0 only a couple of weeks ago, but that for me proved how vital scoring the first goal can be. Imo this will be really tight over the 2 legs and would not be surprised if extra time and penalties were required on Friday night.

Edited May 6, 2024 by Auld Jag

[jagfox]

12 minutes ago, Auld Jag said:

I know we beat them 4-0 only a couple of weeks ago, but that for me proved how vital scoring the first goal can be. Imo this will be really tight over the 2 legs and would not be surprised if extra time and penalties were required on Friday night.

Too soon 😬

[Lenziejag]

I wonder if O’Reilly will get the nod in front of Muirhead tomorrow and I wouldn’t rule out Ngwenya being in the mix for the 11th spot for some extra pace.

[Jaggernaut]

3 hours ago, Auld Jag said:

I know we beat them 4-0 only a couple of weeks ago, but that for me proved how vital scoring the first goal can be. Imo this will be really tight over the 2 legs and would not be surprised if extra time and penalties were required on Friday night.

Got to say that I have the same feeling about this. Although I think we could blow them away at Firhill, I'm worried about the first leg. It might not come to pass, but I dreamt that Diack would score the winner for us.

I don't care who scores!

[JAG1970]

3 hours ago, lady-isobel-barnett said:

Further back I also sense we're prepared to change to a back three (or back five if we've a lead to protect). In short we haven't got quite as good players as this time last year but look like we're less reliant on such a rigid set up.

Agree, but I’m hoping our ability to concede very few goals (ignoring the temporary team at Tannadice) might see us through to the final… How sweet to sink a boring Levein led St Johnstone….. but getting way ahead of myself….

[exiledjag]

A number of interesting point related to missing players and their impact on team  selection and formation.

Firstly, a general comment. The squad we have this season has done well to finish 3rd in the league and reach the play-off stages. The squad is however nowhere near as good as last years.

The two players  missing, Lawless and Adeloye, are big losses. Lawless from the starting team and Adeloye from the bench. I don't wish Ill on anyone but there are other players who could have been unavailable for selection and whose absence would have had less impact.

In terms of selection I would go for O’Reilly in stead of Muirhead (who I would have on the bench) and find a place for Robinson and Stanway in Midfield.

Graham has to be in our attack with Diack to replace him from the bench.

The recent  4-0 hammering of Airdrie may well prove to be a disadvantage for us as it will certainly galvanise Airdrie tomorrow night. Like others I see this set of play-off games being  very tight but I also expect Airdrie to go for it and try to win the tie tomorrow night by getting a 3 or 4 goal lead to take to Firhill on Friday.

I don't think we will win this tie and if we do I dont see us getting past Raith Rovers (with our dismal record at Starks Patk).

If on the off-chance we progress to the play-off final does anyone serious think this squad is good enough to defeat the SPL Team and make an impact in the SPL. If they do all I would say is look at the highlights of the Cup tie with Livingston.

I am not sure I will bother watching the games. As was said by a poster in the last year or so "it's the hope that kills you".

Best of luck to all Jags (and apologies for being so down about this year's  play-off games).

[JeanieD]

Regardless of how the play-off/play-offs go, and personally I’m not sure if we can beat Airdrie and even less sure we can beat Raith (and as for Ross/St Johnstone forget it). To survive in the top division recruitment over the summer would require to be massive, imaginative and, above all, expensive- almost inevitably throwing the club into considerable debt in the hope of surviving a few seasons to recoup the costs of the recruitment. 
Much as it would be great to get promoted I’m not sure if the club is ready for such a step in its current financial position.

[Gary Peebles Tackle]

Absolutely no reason we can’t beat Airdrie & Raith, we have better players than both of them in most positions. If we play well and avoid injuries & suspensions, we could well get to the final.

If we avoid defeat tomorrow, I’ll be relatively content, but I do think we should be looking to win the game.

[dl1971]

1 hour ago, exiledjag said:

A number of interesting point related to missing players and their impact on team  selection and formation.

Firstly, a general comment. The squad we have this season has done well to finish 3rd in the league and reach the play-off stages. The squad is however nowhere near as good as last years.

The two players  missing, Lawless and Adeloye, are big losses. Lawless from the starting team and Adeloye from the bench. I don't wish Ill on anyone but there are other players who could have been unavailable for selection and whose absence would have had less impact.

In terms of selection I would go for O’Reilly in stead of Muirhead (who I would have on the bench) and find a place for Robinson and Stanway in Midfield.

Graham has to be in our attack with Diack to replace him from the bench.

The recent  4-0 hammering of Airdrie may well prove to be a disadvantage for us as it will certainly galvanise Airdrie tomorrow night. Like others I see this set of play-off games being  very tight but I also expect Airdrie to go for it and try to win the tie tomorrow night by getting a 3 or 4 goal lead to take to Firhill on Friday.

I don't think we will win this tie and if we do I dont see us getting past Raith Rovers (with our dismal record at Starks Patk).

If on the off-chance we progress to the play-off final does anyone serious think this squad is good enough to defeat the SPL Team and make an impact in the SPL. If they do all I would say is look at the highlights of the Cup tie with Livingston.

I am not sure I will bother watching the games. As was said by a poster in the last year or so "it's the hope that kills you".

Best of luck to all Jags (and apologies for being so down about this year's  play-off games).

Has to be the most doom laden post I've read for some time. How can hope kill you when clearly you have none? 

[Lenziejag]

37 minutes ago, JeanieD said:

Regardless of how the play-off/play-offs go, and personally I’m not sure if we can beat Airdrie and even less sure we can beat Raith (and as for Ross/St Johnstone forget it). To survive in the top division recruitment over the summer would require to be massive, imaginative and, above all, expensive- almost inevitably throwing the club into considerable debt in the hope of surviving a few seasons to recoup the costs of the recruitment. 
Much as it would be great to get promoted I’m not sure if the club is ready for such a step in its current financial position.

I am not sure, based on championship income, whether we would ever be ready financially ready.

[partickthedog]

I would assess our chances as follows:

• Airdrie 60:40
• Raith 50:50
• Premier 11th 30:70

That works out at a 9% chance of promotion, but for some reason I think that our prospects are better than that. Don't ask me why. Just call it optimism.

[exiledjag]

36 minutes ago, dl1971 said:

Has to be the most doom laden post I've read for some time. How can hope kill you when clearly you have none? 

I have some hope but not in abundance!

I agree with your overall assessment of my post. It is very negative but only in parts. I think even you would have to admit much of it reflects reality. For example, the performance of the squad over the season  to finish in 3rd place and be in the play-offs  has are positives.

The quality of the squad compared with last year is just being realistic not negative.

It would seem I am not the only one who feels we might not beat Airdrie and a others doubt our ability to beat Raith given we haven't beaten them this season. Agree this is negative.

Other posters have quite correctly commented on the financial implication of winning promotion and that we are not yet ready for promotion. Do you consider these comments as negative. I think they represent a realistic assessment.

I knew I would be criticised for my views and for expressing them but afraid that's the way I see thing at the moment.

A Brian Graham goal on Tuesday and a hatrick on Friday would probably change how I see things and increase my "hope" levels. 

 

 

[dl1971]

I think we have to factor in that I think the team will burst a gut to somehow go one better than last year. Also quite a few of the team didn't experience the play offs last year, so perhaps less of a fear factor. There is little between us, Raith and Airdrie so I think it's a 50/50 shout to get to the finals. Ironically, I think St Johnstone are the weakest team and whoever faces them will win. No matter what, let's enjoy the ride and reflect we have done well enough to give it another crack. 

[sandy]

I think we will prevail against Airdrie but maybe our wheels will come off against Raith. Our squad is lighter than last years in comparison. 

[jagfox]

3 hours ago, JeanieD said:

Regardless of how the play-off/play-offs go, and personally I’m not sure if we can beat Airdrie and even less sure we can beat Raith (and as for Ross/St Johnstone forget it). To survive in the top division recruitment over the summer would require to be massive, imaginative and, above all, expensive- almost inevitably throwing the club into considerable debt in the hope of surviving a few seasons to recoup the costs of the recruitment. 
Much as it would be great to get promoted I’m not sure if the club is ready for such a step in its current financial position.

I had similar thoughts last year but @Woodstock Jaggave a concise view of how we would cope. You basically have two budgets, one based on minimum top flight money and the other based on Champioship levels of income.

Whether that Premiershio budget gives us a chance of staying up is another question though.

Bottom line the club would look to avoid any long-term indebtedness as far as I am aware.

Edited May 6, 2024 by jagfox

[Auld Jag]

 There is more money in the top league and i don't see the people we have in charge putting the future of the club in danger just to spend a season or two in it. When you have teams like Kilmarnock, St Mirren and Motherwell to name a few, i don't see why we also couldn't compete in the premier league, but we need to get there first.

[Woodstock Jag]

12 minutes ago, jagfox said:

I had similar thoughts last year but @Woodstock Jaggave a concise view of how we would cope. You basically have two budgets, one based on minimum top flight money and the other based on Champioship levels of income.

Whether that Premiershio budget gives us a chance of staying up is another question though.

Bottom line the club would look to avoid any long-term indebtedness as far as I am aware.

I think the key point is that running a Premiership football club is essentially a completely different business proposition than running a Championship one. In the event of promotion the budget plans for next season would have to be ripped up and you start again. But it's from a position of significant opportunities to grow revenue that wouldn't materialise in another season in the Championship.

It's not just that prize-money is completely different (finishing bottom of the Premiership gets you almost double the prize-money of winning the Championship). That income is also phased differently in the Premiership, which has a major impact on cashflow. Our short-term challenge, following last year's losses, was cashflow. Longer-term, there's a sustainability point on breaking-even. But that's something that essentially none of the full time clubs in this division are doing (except with Old Firm cup fixture cash or benefactors underwriting them).

My guess would be that promotion to the Premiership would increase our costs quite a lot (both immediately in terms of bonuses and in the ensuing season in terms of wage bill) but that it would, overall, leave us in a stronger financial position (not least because even if we go straight back down there's parachute payments to soften the blow).

Final point is that the Club Trust Agreement and the Investment Agreement both prohibit the Club from taking on debt without the consent of the majority shareholder and the principal investor (respectively). The Club hasn't had an overdraft facility since (I think) 2015.

[ChiThistle]

@Woodstock Jag, do you know if the club has any investments?  Or are we pretty much hand-to-mouth and always have been?

[Woodstock Jag]

10 minutes ago, ChiThistle said:

@Woodstock Jag, do you know if the club has any investments?  Or are we pretty much hand-to-mouth and always have been?

I’m not sure I follow your question?

[ChiThistle]

15 minutes ago, Woodstock Jag said:

I’m not sure I follow your question?

Does the club hold any portfolios of securities or other holdings?

[Woodstock Jag]

5 minutes ago, ChiThistle said:

Does the club hold any portfolios of securities or other holdings?

Oh I see!

No.

The closest thing to investments the Club has is its bar stock!

Edited May 6, 2024 by Woodstock Jag
Edit to add