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exiledjag

Peterhead away

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Another must win game. 

McCall, after a result, tends to talk in terms of not losing ground but fact is we are not making up ground (on Falkirk) either. 

My feeling is that Peterhead is a team we always seem to have problems beating (play-off years ago excepted) so I am not overly confident about a win! 

This week presents a great opportunity to make up some ground and if we fail to win - lose ground. 

Although Dumbarton and Clyde have been 'stuffy' recently we must assume Cove and Falkirk (both at home) will win these games. 

With Montrose and Airdrie playing each other we have a chance to make up ground on these clubs. 

Any thoughts are welcome. 

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Struggled against them at Firhill earlier in the season, don't see this game being any different really.

That being said, we are scoring a lot more goals than we were earlier, just can't keep the door shut at the other end!

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What’s the team likely to be? My team would be:

Sneddon/Wright if fit

Mckenna Brownlie Bell Penrice

Cardle Docherty Banzo Tiffoney

Rudden Graham

4-1 Jags.Get yer cairgo chilling!

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31 minutes ago, jags on tour said:

What’s the team likely to be? My team would be:

Sneddon/Wright if fit

Mckenna Brownlie Bell Penrice

Cardle Docherty Banzo Tiffoney

Rudden Graham

4-1 Jags.Get yer cairgo chilling!

Agree with the back 4 and 3 of the midfield. Swithering about Cardle as he always seems to do better when coming into the game as opposed to starting so maybe go with Murray there and have Cardle as an option from the bench.

Graham has to start as he seems to have found a bit of form in the goal scoring stakes, Rudden has just about burned all goodwill I had for him. We can't afford for him to continually miss the chances that he's being presented with.

That being said he seems to be getting into the positions to score, which is half the battle for a striker. Needs to find a bit of form and fast.

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2 hours ago, exiledjag said:

Another must win game. 

McCall, after a result, tends to talk in terms of not losing ground but fact is we are not making up ground (on Falkirk) either. 

My feeling is that Peterhead is a team we always seem to have problems beating (play-off years ago excepted) so I am not overly confident about a win! 

This week presents a great opportunity to make up some ground and if we fail to win - lose ground. 

Although Dumbarton and Clyde have been 'stuffy' recently we must assume Cove and Falkirk (both at home) will win these games. 

With Montrose and Airdrie playing each other we have a chance to make up ground on these clubs. 

Any thoughts are welcome. 

If this is must win, and we didn't win 3 of the 4 previous league games that we didn't win were supposed to be must win, what makes this one different

What will happen if we don't win ? PTFC will still exist and win, lose or draw, we will still have a chance of making the playoffs, so why is this "must win ?"

I hope we win, but I have no confidence in this team beating Peterhead under 5s

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2 hours ago, jags on tour said:

What’s the team likely to be? My team would be:

Sneddon/Wright if fit

Mckenna Brownlie Bell Penrice

Cardle Docherty Banzo Tiffoney

Rudden Graham

4-1 Jags.Get yer cairgo chilling!

Don't think thats far away form the starting 11. Perhaps Foster for Penrice, Rudden on the bench with Murray on and Tiffoney up front with Graham?

4-1 looks quite ambitious. After the performance against East Fife priority is probably a clean sheet and a better defensive display so I would quite happily take a 1-0 . Montrose are playing Airdrie at the same time so something has to give there and its an opportunity for us to take advantage.

I can't see Clyde or Dumbarton doing much away to Falkirk and Cove as both Clyde and Dumbarton will have played 4 games in 7 days.

Hopefully Dumbarton get a result against East Fife tonight.

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Impossible to confirm from video coverage but Bannigan appeared to be more rushed and seeing a ridiculous amount of the ball on Tuesday night. Could that be down to a not fully fit Docherty? Perhaps if so then Docherty just needed a couple of games to get match fit. But if he's further back in fitness then it would be a worry playing him in such an inflexible formation. That's just conjecture of course. 

I'd always play Penrice, but at left back. Maybe if Cardle starts there's a case for Bambi at right back but otherwise I'd have Foster, or even McKenna, ahead of him.  The need to start Graham looks obvious but that requires a partner upfront and continuation of a 4-4-2.  And in turn probably means Rudden starting alongside him.  It goes without saying that Rudden has a lot to prove. 

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5 hours ago, laukat said:

Hopefully Dumbarton get a result against East Fife tonight.

There you go. 2 - 1 to Dumbarton.

We'll only really know if the game against Peterhead is a must win, after we see the other results.

It's a bit like the other must win games that turned out not to be. 

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I really admire your optimism.

But the results tonight change nothing - we’re still sitting outside the play off spots.

And before you mention the game in hand, it’s against Clyde. Who put three past Forfar tonight, a team who we unbelievably struggled against.

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22 minutes ago, Big Col said:

I really admire your optimism.

But the results tonight change nothing - we’re still sitting outside the play off spots.

And before you mention the game in hand, it’s against Clyde. Who put three past Forfar tonight, a team who we unbelievably struggled against.

I don't feel I'm being overly optimistic. I'm just not one for wanting everybody sacked when things aren't going our way.

 Agree about Clyde. Every team from 1st to 8th could still get a play-off place, even if we only play 18 games.

A very poor league with a bunch of poor teams.

We're one of them and if there were two teams that were half decent, I'd have thrown the towel in too.  

 

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24 minutes ago, CotterJag said:

There you go. 2 - 1 to Dumbarton.

We'll only really know if the game against Peterhead is a must win, after we see the other results.

It's a bit like the other must win games that turned out not to be. 

I think the Dumbarton result tonight is important in our first objective which is to be in the top 5. Hopefully I haven't mucked up my maths but this is why I think it matters,

East Fife have only 3 games left and as they play Airdrie in one it means that to achieve 5th place ahead of either of those teams we need to get 28 points. Had East Fife won tonight that points total for 5th place could have still ben as high as 30 points.

For East Fife to get to 28 points assuming they lose to Airdrie means they also need to beat Peterhead. For Airdrie to achieve the 28 points assuming they lose to East Fife means they will also have to beat Montrose. So it would seem unlikely that they will get 28 points

Peterhead  and Clyde can get to 29 points but that means they both need to win all remaining fixtures. So 29 points is the maximum needed for 5th place but its difficult to see any team in this league winning there last 3 or 4 fixtures so again 28 points pretty much looks like you are at least 5th. If we avoid defeat to Peterhead and Clyde both teams can only maximum get 27 points.

If 5th is 27/28 points then the maximum 5th can be behind 1st pre-split is 10 points but for that to happen Falkirk are going to have to beat Cove, Peterhead and Clyde which means that Clyde and Peterhead can't get to 27 points. If Falkirk don't win all their games then the gap from 5th to 1st could be as low as 4 points.

So for us it probably means we need 6/7 points in the last 4 fixtures to make 5th. The key game to win is Montrose at Home. We win that and we make the top 4 bunch up. If we can do that and pick up 4 points from Peterhead, Clyde and Dumbarton we're in not a bad league position going into the split. If we can get anywhere near 9/10 points from our last 4 fixtures we will be very close to top of the league.

I think that means that the top 5 going into the split are going to be so tightly packed it will be impossible to see who will win this league until probably game 3 of the 4 post split games.

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19 minutes ago, laukat said:

I think the Dumbarton result tonight is important in our first objective which is to be in the top 5. Hopefully I haven't mucked up my maths but this is why I think it matters,

East Fife have only 3 games left and as they play Airdrie in one it means that to achieve 5th place ahead of either of those teams we need to get 28 points. Had East Fife won tonight that points total for 5th place could have still ben as high as 30 points.

For East Fife to get to 28 points assuming they lose to Airdrie means they also need to beat Peterhead. For Airdrie to achieve the 28 points assuming they lose to East Fife means they will also have to beat Montrose. So it would seem unlikely that they will get 28 points

Peterhead  and Clyde can get to 29 points but that means they both need to win all remaining fixtures. So 29 points is the maximum needed for 5th place but its difficult to see any team in this league winning there last 3 or 4 fixtures so again 28 points pretty much looks like you are at least 5th. If we avoid defeat to Peterhead and Clyde both teams can only maximum get 27 points.

If 5th is 27/28 points then the maximum 5th can be behind 1st pre-split is 10 points but for that to happen Falkirk are going to have to beat Cove, Peterhead and Clyde which means that Clyde and Peterhead can't get to 27 points. If Falkirk don't win all their games then the gap from 5th to 1st could be as low as 4 points.

So for us it probably means we need 6/7 points in the last 4 fixtures to make 5th. The key game to win is Montrose at Home. We win that and we make the top 4 bunch up. If we can do that and pick up 4 points from Peterhead, Clyde and Dumbarton we're in not a bad league position going into the split. If we can get anywhere near 9/10 points from our last 4 fixtures we will be very close to top of the league.

I think that means that the top 5 going into the split are going to be so tightly packed it will be impossible to see who will win this league until probably game 3 of the 4 post split games.

Think we might need to be in the top 4 for a play-off place?

If that's true, does it mean that 2nd place are waiting for the winners of 3rd v 4th?

If so, there's a massive advantage to finishing 2nd.

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6 minutes ago, CotterJag said:

Think we might need to be in the top 4 for a play-off place?

If that's true, does it mean that 2nd place are waiting for the winners of 3rd v 4th?

If so, there's a massive advantage to finishing 2nd.

No, fourth in our league play second bottom of championship, while second and third in our league play each other. Then the two winners play.

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11 minutes ago, CotterJag said:

Think we might need to be in the top 4 for a play-off place?

If that's true, does it mean that 2nd place are waiting for the winners of 3rd v 4th?

If so, there's a massive advantage to finishing 2nd.

No. 

(a) 2nd plays 3rd

(b) 4th plays 9th from Championship

PS Too slow again. Auld Jag sprints past me. What a carthorse I am!

Edited by partickthedog
Beaten to the punch!

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2 minutes ago, CotterJag said:

Think we might need to be in the top 4 for a play-off place?

If that's true, does it mean that 2nd place are waiting for the winners of 3rd v 4th?

If so, there's a massive advantage to finishing 2nd.

We will need to be top 4 after we complete 22 games. To get to top 5 I think we need 6 or 7 points. From the 4 top 5 split games we will probably need 6 points to get into the top 4 which would put mean getting to around 33 points.

Given how tight the league is looking who knows where in the top 4 we will end up. I think the winner of the league will be get somewhere from 39 to 42 points which I think will mean any team making the top 5 will start the top 5 games with a chance of winning the league.

As @Auld Jag and @partickthedog have already shown their isn't such a clear advantage in finishing 2nd. We won the playoffs when we finished 4th and we arguably got Stranraer who finished 9th in the league above at a good time. I remember thinking that I was glad we didn't have to face 2nd place Morton instead.

This season its pretty tight between Morton, Ayr and Abroath in the playoff. If will be a sickener for one of those 3 teams to end up in the playoff and a real challenge to pick themselves up in time.

Playoffs will be a lottery I would much prefer to win the league if possible. Our form doesn't provide much confidence we will do that but what perhaps offers hope is that no one else in the league appears to be any better.

 

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7 minutes ago, laukat said:

As  @Auld Jag and @partickthedog have already shown there isn't such a clear advantage in finishing 2nd. We won the playoffs when we finished 4th.

Good point. I think our apparently inconsistent form and tendency to draw too many games is actually a cunning plan and/or high risk strategy to deliver us into 4th place on the last day of the season, so that we play a Championship team on a downer instead of one of the form teams in League 1. 

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42 minutes ago, laukat said:

We will need to be top 4 after we complete 22 games. To get to top 5 I think we need 6 or 7 points. From the 4 top 5 split games we will probably need 6 points to get into the top 4 which would put mean getting to around 33 points.

Given how tight the league is looking who knows where in the top 4 we will end up. I think the winner of the league will be get somewhere from 39 to 42 points which I think will mean any team making the top 5 will start the top 5 games with a chance of winning the league.

As @Auld Jag and @partickthedog have already shown their isn't such a clear advantage in finishing 2nd. We won the playoffs when we finished 4th and we arguably got Stranraer who finished 9th in the league above at a good time. I remember thinking that I was glad we didn't have to face 2nd place Morton instead.

This season its pretty tight between Morton, Ayr and Abroath in the playoff. If will be a sickener for one of those 3 teams to end up in the playoff and a real challenge to pick themselves up in time.

Playoffs will be a lottery I would much prefer to win the league if possible. Our form doesn't provide much confidence we will do that but what perhaps offers hope is that no one else in the league appears to be any better.

 

 

58 minutes ago, partickthedog said:

No. 

(a) 2nd plays 3rd

(b) 4th plays 9th from Championship

PS Too slow again. Auld Jag sprints past me. What a carthorse I am!

 

1 hour ago, Auld Jag said:

No, fourth in our league play second bottom of championship, while second and third in our league play each other. Then the two winners play.

Thanks, think I got it.

We need to be top 4 if there's only 18 games but if there's 22 games, our last 4 are against the rest of the top 5.

I should really take more notice of the details.

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2 hours ago, laukat said:

We will need to be top 4 after we complete 22 games. To get to top 5 I think we need 6 or 7 points. From the 4 top 5 split games we will probably need 6 points to get into the top 4 which would put mean getting to around 33 points.

Given how tight the league is looking who knows where in the top 4 we will end up. I think the winner of the league will be get somewhere from 39 to 42 points which I think will mean any team making the top 5 will start the top 5 games with a chance of winning the league.

As @Auld Jag and @partickthedog have already shown their isn't such a clear advantage in finishing 2nd. We won the playoffs when we finished 4th and we arguably got Stranraer who finished 9th in the league above at a good time. I remember thinking that I was glad we didn't have to face 2nd place Morton instead.

This season its pretty tight between Morton, Ayr and Abroath in the playoff. If will be a sickener for one of those 3 teams to end up in the playoff and a real challenge to pick themselves up in time.

Playoffs will be a lottery I would much prefer to win the league if possible. Our form doesn't provide much confidence we will do that but what perhaps offers hope is that no one else in the league appears to be any better.

 

I suddenly got filled with dread when I read "Arbroath."

Imagine playing against them in a play-off.

Doolan is in their team.

The script becomes clearer........

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4 hours ago, Jaggernaut said:

I suddenly got filled with dread when I read "Arbroath."

Imagine playing against them in a play-off.

Doolan is in their team.

The script becomes clearer........

Indeed.  It is written in the stars.  

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7 hours ago, laukat said:

I think the Dumbarton result tonight is important in our first objective which is to be in the top 5. Hopefully I haven't mucked up my maths but this is why I think it matters,

East Fife have only 3 games left and as they play Airdrie in one it means that to achieve 5th place ahead of either of those teams we need to get 28 points. Had East Fife won tonight that points total for 5th place could have still ben as high as 30 points.

For East Fife to get to 28 points assuming they lose to Airdrie means they also need to beat Peterhead. For Airdrie to achieve the 28 points assuming they lose to East Fife means they will also have to beat Montrose. So it would seem unlikely that they will get 28 points

Peterhead  and Clyde can get to 29 points but that means they both need to win all remaining fixtures. So 29 points is the maximum needed for 5th place but its difficult to see any team in this league winning there last 3 or 4 fixtures so again 28 points pretty much looks like you are at least 5th. If we avoid defeat to Peterhead and Clyde both teams can only maximum get 27 points.

If 5th is 27/28 points then the maximum 5th can be behind 1st pre-split is 10 points but for that to happen Falkirk are going to have to beat Cove, Peterhead and Clyde which means that Clyde and Peterhead can't get to 27 points. If Falkirk don't win all their games then the gap from 5th to 1st could be as low as 4 points.

So for us it probably means we need 6/7 points in the last 4 fixtures to make 5th. The key game to win is Montrose at Home. We win that and we make the top 4 bunch up. If we can do that and pick up 4 points from Peterhead, Clyde and Dumbarton we're in not a bad league position going into the split. If we can get anywhere near 9/10 points from our last 4 fixtures we will be very close to top of the league.

I think that means that the top 5 going into the split are going to be so tightly packed it will be impossible to see who will win this league until probably game 3 of the 4 post split games.

I don’t know about the maths - but the 1st objective needs to be in 4th position after 18 games. Just in case 

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Remember when we were a decent team and didn’t have to worry about scrapping into the top5 of the 3rd tier and the subsequent permutations :blink:

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16 minutes ago, JAG1970 said:

Remember when we were a decent team and didn’t have to worry about scrapping into the top5 of the 3rd tier and the subsequent permutations :blink:

Oh yeah! All too well. Dick Campbell?

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29 minutes ago, Garscube Road End 2 said:

Oh yeah! All too well. Dick Campbell?

I’d erased him from my memory after expensive therapy...... thanks for spoiling my Friday 

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